{"id":5293,"date":"2025-06-19T17:08:52","date_gmt":"2025-06-19T15:08:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wem.sk\/insights\/wem-market-pulse-iransko-izraelsky-konflikt\/"},"modified":"2025-06-19T17:08:52","modified_gmt":"2025-06-19T15:08:52","slug":"wem-market-pulse-iransko-izraelsky-konflikt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wem.sk\/cs\/insights\/wem-market-pulse-iransko-izraelsky-konflikt\/","title":{"rendered":"WEM Market Pulse: Ir\u00e1nsko-izraelsk\u00fd konflikt"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

K 18. j\u00fanu 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vypuknutie konfliktu \u2014 trhy v pohotovosti<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e1hly konflikt medzi Ir\u00e1nom a Izraelom otriasol celosvetov\u00fdch investorov. Boje vypukli minul\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148, ke\u010f Izrael uskuto\u010dnil prekvapiv\u00e9 \u00fatoky na ir\u00e1nske jadrov\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 objekty, \u010do vyvolalo intenz\u00edvnu diplomatick\u00fa aktivitu. Diplomacia za\u010dala aktivitu z najvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch miest \u2014 americk\u00fd prezident Trump dokonca pred\u010dasne opustil summit G7, aby situ\u00e1ciu rie\u0161il, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 zmiernil o\u010dak\u00e1vania o bl\u00edzkom pr\u00edmer\u00ed, napriek n\u00e1znakom zo strany Franc\u00fazska. Hoci glob\u00e1lne trhy na za\u010diatku prudko zareagovali, odvtedy op\u00e4\u0165 nadobudli ur\u010dit\u00fa rovnov\u00e1hu. K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 obavy: roz\u0161\u00edrenie konfliktu by mohlo naru\u0161i\u0165 energetick\u00e9 toky na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode a podkopa\u0165 d\u00f4veru investorov v u\u017e aj tak krehk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1rske prostredie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Otrasy na trhu s ropou a akciami<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Geopolitick\u00e9 riziko sa na trhu s ropou vr\u00e1tilo s ve\u013ekou silou. V de\u0148, ke\u010f za\u010dali boje, sa cena ropy Brent po\u010das d\u0148a prudko zv\u00fd\u0161ila o viac ako 13 %, \u010do pripomenulo \u0161ok z inv\u00e1zie na Ukrajinu v roku 2022. Brent 13. j\u00fana stanovil nav\u00fd\u0161enie o ~7 % na 74,23 USD, \u010do bol jeho najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed jednod\u0148ov\u00fd n\u00e1rast za posledn\u00e9 roky. V utorok r\u00e1no (17. j\u00fana) sa ropa stabilizovala v rozmedz\u00ed stredn\u00fdch 70 USD za barel \u2014 Brent na \u00farovni 73,54 USD, teda o ~6 % vy\u0161\u0161ie od za\u010diatku konfliktu. Obchodn\u00edci zva\u017euj\u00fa medzi istotou okam\u017eit\u00fdch dod\u00e1vok a rizikami eskal\u00e1cie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Doteraj\u0161ie izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky nezasiahli ir\u00e1nsku ropn\u00fa infra\u0161trukt\u00faru (napr. v\u00fdvozn\u00fd termin\u00e1l ostrova Kharg) a ir\u00e1nske zariadenia zost\u00e1vaj\u00fa pod\u013ea v\u0161etk\u00e9ho nepo\u0161koden\u00e9 a funk\u010dn\u00e9. Analytici v\u0161ak varuj\u00fa, \u017ee \u010fal\u0161ia eskal\u00e1cia by mohla nasledova\u0165 logiku \u201eenergia za energiu\u201c, \u010do by znamenalo, \u017ee by sa mohli obe strany konfliktu zamera\u0165 na ropn\u00e9 zariadenia svojho protivn\u00edka \u2014 scen\u00e1r s ove\u013ea v\u00e1\u017enej\u0161\u00edmi dopadmi na produkciu. Pribli\u017ene 20 % svetovej ropy (18 \u2013 19 mili\u00f3nov barelov denne) prech\u00e1dza cez Hormuzsk\u00fd prieliv, ktor\u00fd sused\u00ed s Ir\u00e1nom. Ak\u00e9ko\u013evek ohrozenie Hormuzu alebo z\u00e1sah do ve\u013ek\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch pol\u00ed by mohli ceny ropy op\u00e4\u0165 vystreli\u0165 nahor, pri\u010dom by sa mohli op\u00e4\u0165 vr\u00e1ti\u0165 tzv. \u201cenergetick\u00e9 \u0161oky\u201d z obdobia 70. rokov minul\u00e9ho storo\u010dia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Zdroj: Bloomberg Professional Terminal; d\u00e1ta zo d\u0148a 18. 6. 2025<\/sup><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Akciov\u00e9 trhy a meny medzit\u00fdm za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00fa prudk\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy v d\u00f4sledku meniacej sa n\u00e1lady investorov. V prv\u00fd de\u0148 konfliktu akcie glob\u00e1lne klesli a investori sa uch\u00fdlili k bezpe\u010dn\u00fdm pr\u00edstavom. Zlato, americk\u00fd dol\u00e1r a \u0161vaj\u010diarsky frank zaznamenali siln\u00fd dopyt. Eur\u00f3pske burzy a americk\u00e9 akciov\u00e9 futures sa prepadli po spr\u00e1vach o vojne, ke\u010f sa obchodn\u00edci za\u010dali pripravova\u0165 na infl\u00e1ciu sp\u00f4soben\u00fa drah\u0161ou ropou a v\u0161eobecn\u00fa averziu k riziku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ke\u010f sa v\u0161ak uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee konflikt je (zatia\u013e) obmedzen\u00fd na Ir\u00e1n a Izrael, trhy sa zotavili. V Eur\u00f3pe sa indexom dokonca podarilo v nasleduj\u00facich d\u0148och mierne vzr\u00e1s\u0165, hoci zost\u00e1vaj\u00fa v strehu pred akouko\u013evek spr\u00e1vou z Bl\u00edzkeho v\u00fdchodu, ktor\u00e1 by mohla situ\u00e1ciu zmeni\u0165.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Americk\u00e9 aj eur\u00f3pske trhy reaguj\u00fa ve\u013emi citlivo na ka\u017ed\u00fd nov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj \u2014 aj len nepotvrden\u00e1 spr\u00e1va o pr\u00edmer\u00ed alebo diplomatickom prelome m\u00f4\u017ee sp\u00f4sobi\u0165 rastov\u00e9 rally, zatia\u013e \u010do \u0161ir\u0161ie roz\u0161\u00edrenie konfliktu by mohlo vyvola\u0165 \u010fal\u0161\u00ed prudk\u00fd v\u00fdpredaj rizikov\u00fdch akt\u00edv. Tento konflikt de facto pridal nov\u00fd faktor, ktor\u00fd musia trhy zoh\u013eadni\u0165 popri \u00fadajoch o infl\u00e1cii a sign\u00e1loch centr\u00e1lnych b\u00e1nk. Ako poznamenal jeden strat\u00e9g, investori s\u00fa dnes z\u00e1visl\u00ed od d\u00e1t aj titulkov: ekonomick\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy a spr\u00e1vy z Bl\u00edzkeho v\u00fdchodu spolo\u010dne sp\u00f4sobuj\u00fa denn\u00fa volatilitu. \u010dase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Anal\u00fdza scen\u00e1rov: eskal\u00e1cia vojny vs. mierov\u00e1 dohoda<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00e1kladn\u00fd scen\u00e1r: obmedzen\u00fd konflikt, nestabiln\u00fd status quo<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Doteraz sa zd\u00e1, \u017ee trhy predpokladaj\u00fa, \u017ee vojna medzi Ir\u00e1nom a Izraelom, hoci je prudk\u00e1, zostane ohrani\u010den\u00e1 a pravdepodobne kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e1. V tomto z\u00e1kladnom scen\u00e1ri si ceny ropy m\u00f4\u017eu udr\u017ea\u0165 miernu rizikov\u00fa prir\u00e1\u017eku (nieko\u013eko dol\u00e1rov na barel), ale nevystrelia v\u00fdrazne vy\u0161\u0161ie, najm\u00e4 ak ned\u00f4jde k preru\u0161eniu v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edch dod\u00e1vok. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Akciov\u00e9 trhy v USA a Eur\u00f3pe by mohli zosta\u0165 kol\u00edsav\u00e9, ale vyhn\u00fa sa hlb\u0161ej korekcii \u2014 konflikt sa vn\u00edma ako region\u00e1lny probl\u00e9m, pokia\u013e nepotrv\u00e1 pr\u00edli\u0161 dlho alebo sa neeskaluje. Ke\u010f\u017ee po\u010diato\u010dn\u00e1 panika ust\u00fapila, investori sa op\u00e4\u0165 opatrne s\u00fastre\u010fuj\u00fa na z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 fundamenty (zisky, \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby), pri\u010dom sleduj\u00fa spr\u00e1vy. Akcie obrann\u00fdch a energetick\u00fdch spolo\u010dnost\u00ed m\u00f4\u017eu prekon\u00e1va\u0165 trh v d\u00f4sledku vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch v\u00fddavkov na obranu a cien ropy, zatia\u013e \u010do odvetvia citliv\u00e9 na ropu (letectvo, doprava) m\u00f4\u017eu mierne zaost\u00e1va\u0165. Americk\u00fd dol\u00e1r m\u00f4\u017ee zosta\u0165 siln\u00fd ako bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fato\u010disko, \u010do zvy\u0161uje tlak na rozv\u00edjaj\u00face sa trhy. Celkovo v tomto scen\u00e1ri konflikt zvy\u0161uje volatilitu, ale neud\u00e1va trval\u00fd trend \u2014 ide o nestabiln\u00fa rovnov\u00e1hu, ktor\u00e1 z\u00e1vis\u00ed od toho, \u010di nepr\u00edde k \u010fal\u0161\u00edm prekvapeniam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Negat\u00edvny scen\u00e1r: eskal\u00e1cia a roz\u0161\u00edrenie<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ak sa konflikt zhor\u0161\u00ed \u2014 napr\u00edklad ak Ir\u00e1n priamo za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na ropn\u00fa infra\u0161trukt\u00faru v Perzskom z\u00e1live, USA sa zapoja do bojov alebo d\u00f4jde k z\u00e1stupn\u00fdm stretom inde \u2014 trhy m\u00f4\u017eu upadn\u00fa\u0165 do v\u00fdrazn\u00e9ho re\u017eimu averzie k riziku. Ropa by mohla prekro\u010di\u0165 100 USD, ak by do\u0161lo k preru\u0161eniu v\u00fdznamnej \u010dasti ir\u00e1nskeho v\u00fdvozu (2 mil. bpd) alebo k naru\u0161eniu dopravy cez Hormuz. Tak\u00fdto \u0161ok by o\u017eivil glob\u00e1lnu infl\u00e1ciu pr\u00e1ve v \u010dase, ke\u010f sa za\u010dala zmier\u0148ova\u0165, \u010do by mohlo prin\u00fati\u0165 centr\u00e1lne banky zrevidova\u0165 pl\u00e1ny zni\u017eovania sadzieb alebo ich dokonca op\u00e4\u0165 zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 \u2014 \u010do by bolo negat\u00edvne pre dlhopisy aj akcie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Akcie v USA a Eur\u00f3pe by pravdepodobne prudko klesli, pri\u010dom by najviac utrpeli sektory ako letectvo, automobily a spotrebn\u00fd tovar. Bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 pr\u00edstavy by naopak prudko r\u00e1stli: zlato by mohlo dosiahnu\u0165 nov\u00e9 maxim\u00e1, dol\u00e1r a \u0161vaj\u010diarsky frank by \u010falej posilnili. Ak by eskal\u00e1cia vojny nastala v \u010dase spoma\u013euj\u00facej sa americkej ekonomiky, mohla by ur\u00fdchli\u0165 prepad do recesie (cez \u0161ok cien energi\u00ed a oslaben\u00fa d\u00f4veru). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ide o no\u010dn\u00fa moru investorov: riziko stagfl\u00e1cie a vy\u0161\u0161ia pravdepodobnos\u0165 recesie. Kreditn\u00e9 prir\u00e1\u017eky by sa roz\u0161\u00edrili v d\u00f4sledku rast\u00facich ob\u00e1v z defaultov a rozv\u00edjaj\u00face sa trhy (najm\u00e4 tie z\u00e1visl\u00e9 od dovozu ropy alebo z regi\u00f3nu Bl\u00edzkeho v\u00fdchodu) by boli najviac postihnut\u00e9. Volatilita by pretrv\u00e1vala a\u017e do zjavnej deeskal\u00e1cie alebo z\u00e1sahu na zabezpe\u010denie dod\u00e1vok ropy. Skr\u00e1tka, eskal\u00e1cia by mohla sp\u00f4sobi\u0165 dvojit\u00fd \u00fader \u2014 podkopa\u0165 rast a zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 infl\u00e1ciu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Pozit\u00edvny scen\u00e1r: pr\u00edmerie a diplomatick\u00fd prelom<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Na druhej strane, r\u00fdchle pr\u00edmerie alebo diplomatick\u00e9 rie\u0161enie \u2014 akoko\u013evek nepravdepodobn\u00e9 uprostred vojny \u2014 by pravdepodobne posilnilo glob\u00e1lne trhy. Ak by Ir\u00e1n a Izrael zastavili boje (napr\u00edklad pod z\u00e1\u0161titou ve\u013emoc\u00ed), a najm\u00e4 ak by rozhovory nazna\u010dili op\u00e4tovn\u00e9 zapojenie Ir\u00e1nu do spolupr\u00e1ce so Z\u00e1padom (obnova jadrovej dohody, zru\u0161enie sankci\u00ed), dopad by mohol by\u0165 dramatick\u00fd. Ceny ropy by v\u00fdrazne poklesli (vr\u00e1tenie ~$5 \u2013 $10 vojenskej prir\u00e1\u017eky). Spr\u00e1vy o ir\u00e1nskom z\u00e1ujme o ukon\u010denie bojov u\u017e sp\u00f4sobili pokles cien ropy v r\u00e1mci denn\u00fdch pohybov. Udr\u017eate\u013en\u00fd mier by odstr\u00e1nil d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9 riziko dod\u00e1vok, \u010do by mohlo vies\u0165 a\u017e k prebytku na trhu, ak by Ir\u00e1n zv\u00fd\u0161il export. Lacnej\u0161ia ropa a stabilnej\u0161ie geopolitick\u00e9 prostredie by posilnili akcie, najm\u00e4 v Eur\u00f3pe a rozv\u00edjaj\u00facich sa trhoch. Pomohlo by to sektorom ako letectvo, cestovn\u00fd ruch a v\u00fdroba. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ak by sa Ir\u00e1n znovu otvoril, mohlo by to vyvola\u0165 pr\u00edlev invest\u00edci\u00ed do z\u00e1padn\u00fdch firiem pripraven\u00fdch profitova\u0165 \u2014 vr\u00e1tane v\u00fdrobcov energetick\u00fdch zariaden\u00ed, spotrebn\u00e9ho tovaru, stavebn\u00fdch spolo\u010dnost\u00ed a \u010fal\u0161\u00edch, ako aj do trhov na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode. Rizikov\u00e1 chu\u0165 investorov by oslabila dol\u00e1r, \u010do by prospelo americk\u00fdm nadn\u00e1rodn\u00fdm spolo\u010dnostiam. Ak by mier priniesol v\u00fdznamne viac ropy v rokoch 2025 \u2013 26, mohlo by to dokonca umo\u017eni\u0165 skor\u0161ie zn\u00ed\u017eenie sadzieb centr\u00e1lnymi bankami, \u010do by \u010falej podporilo akcie a dlhopisy. Diplomatick\u00e9 rie\u0161enie by tak mohlo prinies\u0165 \u201emierov\u00fd rastov\u00fd impulz\u201c, ak by v\u0161ak bolo podlo\u017een\u00e9 pokrokom v jadrov\u00fdch a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00fdch dohod\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Ekonomick\u00e9 pozadie \u2014 zmie\u0161an\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly, vysok\u00e1 citlivos\u0165<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

To v\u0161etko sa odohr\u00e1va na pozad\u00ed zlo\u017eit\u00e9ho makroekonomick\u00e9ho prostredia. Americk\u00e1 ekonomika v poslednom obdob\u00ed vysiela zmie\u0161an\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly \u2014 st\u00e1le rastie, no jasne spoma\u013euje. Na\u0161a intern\u00e1 ekonomick\u00e1 tabu\u013eka teraz signalizuje v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 spomalenie. K\u00fdm v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina ukazovate\u013eov bola e\u0161te pred p\u00e1r rokmi jasne expanz\u00edvna, dnes je obraz opatrnej\u0161\u00ed. Iba jeden ukazovate\u013e zost\u00e1va v\u00fdrazne pozit\u00edvny \u2014 hotovostn\u00e9 toky nefinan\u010dn\u00fdch korpor\u00e1ci\u00ed \u2014 ostatn\u00e9 s\u00fa rovnomerne rozdelen\u00e9 medzi opatrn\u00e9 a recesn\u00e9 hodnoty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 v\u00fdstra\u017en\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly ako inverzn\u00e1 v\u00fdnosov\u00e1 krivka, slabn\u00face objedn\u00e1vky v priemysle a prudk\u00fd pokles indexu ved\u00facich indik\u00e1torov s\u00fa \u010derven\u00e9. Na druhej strane, trh pr\u00e1ce a ukazovatele korpor\u00e1tneho \u00faveru zost\u00e1vaj\u00fa relat\u00edvne odoln\u00e9. Tento zmie\u0161an\u00fd profil zd\u00f4raz\u0148uje d\u00f4le\u017eitos\u0165 obozretnej, na d\u00e1ta citlivej spr\u00e1vy portf\u00f3lia. V dne\u0161nom prostred\u00ed nemo\u017eno ni\u010d bra\u0165 ako samozrejmos\u0165.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tak\u00e9to spomalenie znamen\u00e1, \u017ee trhy boli v nap\u00e4t\u00ed u\u017e pred kr\u00edzou na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode a reagovali prudko na ka\u017ed\u00e9 nov\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 d\u00e1ta (infl\u00e1cia, pracovn\u00e9 miesta, koment\u00e1re Fed-u). Teraz, s pridanou geopolitickou neistotou, je t\u00e1to citlivos\u0165 e\u0161te vy\u0161\u0161ia. Investori si uvedomuj\u00fa, \u017ee ve\u013ek\u00fd n\u00e1rast cien ropy by mohol zhor\u0161i\u0165 infl\u00e1ciu pr\u00e1ve v \u010dase spoma\u013eovania rastu \u2014 \u010do v\u00fdrazne z\u00fa\u017ei priestor pre \u201em\u00e4kk\u00e9 prist\u00e1tie\u201d. Naopak, r\u00fdchly mier by mohol odstr\u00e1ni\u0165 jednu z infla\u010dn\u00fdch prek\u00e1\u017eok. V podstate s\u00fa trhy extr\u00e9mne z\u00e1visl\u00e9 od d\u00e1t aj od spr\u00e1v. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vid\u00edme zmie\u0161an\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly mo\u017enej recesie v USA \u2014 nejde o priamy pokles, ale ani o robustn\u00fd rast \u2014 \u010do rob\u00ed obchodn\u00edkov obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 reakt\u00edvnymi na ka\u017ed\u00fa nov\u00fa spr\u00e1vu. Tento t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 je toho uk\u00e1\u017ekou: americk\u00e1 ekonomika je v neskorej f\u00e1ze cyklu a zahrani\u010dn\u00fd \u0161ok m\u00f4\u017ee r\u00fdchlo zmeni\u0165 o\u010dak\u00e1vania oh\u013eadom sadzieb a apet\u00edtu po riziku. V\u00fdnosy americk\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1tnych dlhopisov najsk\u00f4r klesli v reakcii na bezpe\u010dn\u00fd \u00fakryt pri raketov\u00fdch \u00fatokoch, no n\u00e1sledne vzr\u00e1stli, ke\u010f sa objavili obavy z infl\u00e1cie \u2014 \u010do odr\u00e1\u017ea kol\u00edsaj\u00face o\u010dak\u00e1vania. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eur\u00f3pska ekonomika \u010del\u00ed podobnej rovnov\u00e1he: \u0165a\u017e\u00ed z miernej\u0161ej infl\u00e1cie a odoln\u00fdch slu\u017eieb, no ako ve\u013ek\u00fd dovozca energie je zranite\u013en\u00e1 vo\u010di \u0161okom na trhu s ropou a plynom. ECB zd\u00f4raz\u0148uje, \u017ee ost\u00e1va z\u00e1visl\u00e1 od d\u00e1t; no teraz mus\u00ed by\u0165 do istej miery z\u00e1visl\u00e1 aj od titulkov v m\u00e9di\u00e1ch, preto\u017ee vojnov\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy m\u00f4\u017eu medzi zasadnutiami v\u00fdrazne zmeni\u0165 v\u00fdh\u013ead infl\u00e1cie. Jednoducho povedan\u00e9, trhov\u00fdm mottom sa stalo: sledujte d\u00e1ta a sledujte Bl\u00edzky v\u00fdchod.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00e1ver \u2014 ostra\u017eitos\u0165 v neist\u00fdch \u010dasoch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pre in\u0161titucion\u00e1lnych investorov z toho vypl\u00fdvaj\u00fa dva hlavn\u00e9 d\u00f4sledky. Po prv\u00e9, riadenie rizika je k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9: geopolitick\u00e9 rizik\u00e1 ako konflikt medzi Ir\u00e1nom a Izraelom sa m\u00f4\u017eu objavi\u0165 n\u00e1hle, a preto je udr\u017eiavanie diverzifikovan\u00fdch portf\u00f3li\u00ed a hedgov (opcie na ropu, zlato, n\u00e1stroje volatility) rozumn\u00e9. Trajekt\u00f3ria konfliktu je vysoko premenliv\u00e1 \u2014 m\u00f4\u017ee sa deeskalova\u0165 alebo vyhroti\u0165 \u2014 a trhy na to bud\u00fa reagova\u0165 v re\u00e1lnom \u010dase. Po druh\u00e9, pr\u00edle\u017eitos\u0165 sa \u010dasto skr\u00fdva v kr\u00edze. Mo\u017enos\u0165, \u017ee sa Ir\u00e1n op\u00e4\u0165 integruje do glob\u00e1lnej ekonomiky, hoci len hypoteticky, by mala zosta\u0165 v h\u013ead\u00e1\u010diku. Ak sa zmenia diplomatick\u00e9 vetry, sektory od eur\u00f3pskej petrochemie cez \u00e1zijsk\u00e9 LNG prepravn\u00e9 firmy a\u017e po dlhopisy hrani\u010dn\u00fdch trhov by mohli zaznamena\u0165 pozit\u00edvne prece\u0148ovanie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V najbli\u017e\u0161om obdob\u00ed mo\u017eno o\u010dak\u00e1va\u0165, \u017ee trhy bud\u00fa reagova\u0165 na ka\u017ed\u00fd obrat vo v\u00fdvoji konfliktu na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode, ako aj na ka\u017ed\u00fd nov\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd \u00fadaj. Toto mimoriadne reakt\u00edvne prostredie znamen\u00e1 vy\u0161\u0161iu volatilitu, ale tie\u017e potenci\u00e1lne cenov\u00e9 nespr\u00e1vnosti pre pozorn\u00e9ho investora. Z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 princ\u00edpy USA s\u00fa vla\u017en\u00e9 \u2014 nesignalizuj\u00fa bezprostredn\u00fa recesiu, ale ani silu \u2014 \u010do rob\u00ed trhov\u00fd z\u00e1klad krehk\u00fdm. Ka\u017ed\u00fd \u010fal\u0161\u00ed \u0161ok (napr\u00edklad preru\u0161enie dod\u00e1vok ropy) by mohol zasiahnu\u0165 silnej\u0161ie, ale naopak, ka\u017ed\u00e1 \u00fa\u013eava (mierov\u00e1 dohoda alebo spomalenie infl\u00e1cie) by mohla spusti\u0165 v\u00fdrazn\u00fa rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V kone\u010dnom d\u00f4sledku dnes trhy bij\u00fa v rytme makra aj geopolitiky. Ir\u00e1nsko-izraelsk\u00fd konflikt vniesol do glob\u00e1lneho v\u00fdh\u013eadu neistotu a energetick\u00e9 rizik\u00e1, ktor\u00e9 ovplyv\u0148uj\u00fa trhy v USA a Eur\u00f3pe cez ceny ropy a n\u00e1ladu vo\u010di riziku. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak otv\u00e1ra dvere \u2014 akoko\u013evek \u00fazke \u2014 k transforma\u010dn\u00e9mu scen\u00e1ru, ak by sa postoj Ir\u00e1nu vo\u010di Z\u00e1padu zmenil. Investori by mali zosta\u0165 v strehu a flexibiln\u00ed, preto\u017ee situ\u00e1cia je st\u00e1le dynamick\u00e1. V prostred\u00ed, kde je m\u00e1lo zelen\u00fdch svetiel a ve\u013ea oran\u017eov\u00fdch, je rozv\u00e1\u017enos\u0165 k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e1 \u2014 rovnako ako pripravenos\u0165 na moment, ke\u010f sa \u010derven\u00e9 svetl\u00e1 op\u00e4\u0165 zmenia na zelen\u00e9. Trhy zostan\u00fa nap\u00e4t\u00e9 a mimoriadne citliv\u00e9 na ekonomick\u00e9 d\u00e1ta a v\u00fdvoj na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode v najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148och. Udr\u017eiava\u0165 si aktu\u00e1lny preh\u013ead o t\u00fdchto faktoroch bude rozhoduj\u00face pre zvl\u00e1dnutie volatility a objavovanie pr\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed v neist\u00fdch \u010dasoch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Pr\u00edloha: Ir\u00e1nsky obrat na Z\u00e1pad \u2014 nov\u00e1 hranica dod\u00e1vok?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Zauj\u00edmavos\u0165ou je, \u017ee t\u00e1to kr\u00edza v sebe nesie aj ur\u010dit\u00fd z\u00e1rodok pr\u00edle\u017eitosti. \u010coraz viac sa hovor\u00ed o mo\u017enosti, \u017ee by sa Ir\u00e1n mohol za\u010da\u0165 orientova\u0165 na Z\u00e1pad \u2014 \u010di u\u017e prostredn\u00edctvom vyjednanej dohody alebo diplomatickej re\u0161trukturaliz\u00e1cie po konflikte. Ak by Teher\u00e1n usiloval o dohodu (napr\u00edklad o svojom jadrovom programe) a zmiernenie nap\u00e4tia so z\u00e1padn\u00fdmi mocnos\u0165ami, ekonomick\u00e9 zisky by mohli by\u0165 obrovsk\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aby sme si predstavili rozsah tejto pr\u00edle\u017eitosti: Ir\u00e1n m\u00e1 jedny z najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1sob uhl\u00edkov\u00fdch pal\u00edv na svete. Svetovo je na 3. mieste v preuk\u00e1zan\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch rezerv\u00e1ch (pribli\u017ene 209 mili\u00e1rd barelov, \u010do je asi 12\u202f% svetov\u00fdch z\u00e1sob), hne\u010f po Venezuele a Saudskej Ar\u00e1bii. Jeho ropn\u00e9 polia s\u00fa bohat\u00e9, ale nedostato\u010dne investovan\u00e9 \u2014 s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e1 produkcia je okolo 3,3 mili\u00f3na barelov denne, obmedzen\u00e1 sankciami, pri\u010dom pod\u013ea OPEC by sa mohla zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 na pribli\u017ene 3,8 mili\u00f3na, ak by boli obmedzenia zru\u0161en\u00e9. (Pre historick\u00fd kontext: v roku 1974 Ir\u00e1n produkoval 6 mili\u00f3nov barelov denne \u2013 vy\u0161e 10\u202f% vtedaj\u0161ej svetovej produkcie \u2013 \u010do ukazuje jeho potenci\u00e1l v pr\u00edpade n\u00e1vratu zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch invest\u00edci\u00ed a technol\u00f3gi\u00ed). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ir\u00e1n je z\u00e1rove\u0148 druh\u00fdm najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm dr\u017eite\u013eom z\u00e1sob zemn\u00e9ho plynu na svete, s odhadovan\u00fdmi 1 200 bili\u00f3nmi kubick\u00fdch st\u00f4p plynu (\u224834 bili\u00f3nov kubick\u00fdch metrov, pribli\u017ene 17\u202f% svetov\u00fdch z\u00e1sob). Jeho obrovsk\u00e9 lo\u017eisko South Pars (zdie\u013ean\u00e9 s Katarom) upev\u0148uje jeho poz\u00edciu ako jedn\u00e9ho z troch najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edch producentov plynu, hoci v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina v\u00fdstupu je spotrebovan\u00e1 doma kv\u00f4li sankci\u00e1m. Pln\u00e1 reintegr\u00e1cia by mohla z Ir\u00e1nu spravi\u0165 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozcu LNG alebo dod\u00e1vate\u013ea plynu prostredn\u00edctvom plynovodov pre energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 trhy (vr\u00e1tane Eur\u00f3py, ktor\u00e1 h\u013ead\u00e1 nov\u00e9 zdroje).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Okrem ropy a plynu m\u00e1 Ir\u00e1n aj bohat\u00fa surovinov\u00fa z\u00e1klad\u0148u. M\u00e1 ve\u013ek\u00fd petrochemick\u00fd priemysel (druh\u00fd najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed v OPEC po Saudskej Ar\u00e1bii) a mno\u017estvo fabr\u00edk, ktor\u00e9 by pri pr\u00edstupe k z\u00e1padn\u00fdm technol\u00f3gi\u00e1m
a trhom mohli v\u00fdrazne zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 v\u00fdvoz plastov, hnoj\u00edv a priemyseln\u00fdch chemik\u00e1li\u00ed. V oblasti kovov a \u0165a\u017eby m\u00e1 Ir\u00e1n v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 glob\u00e1lne postavenie: napr\u00edklad m\u00e1 7. najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie z\u00e1soby medi (pribli\u017ene 36,5 mili\u00f3na ton, asi 4\u202f% svetov\u00fdch z\u00e1sob), v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 z\u00e1soby \u017eeleznej rudy (v prvej desiatke na svete), zinku (6. najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie z\u00e1soby) a \u010fal\u0161\u00edch surov\u00edn. U\u017e dnes je najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm producentom ocele na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode \u2014 zru\u0161enie sankci\u00ed by mohlo spusti\u0165 exportn\u00fd boom v oceli, medi a in\u00fdch nerastoch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010eal\u0161ou, \u010dasto podce\u0148ovanou v\u00fdhodou je po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstvo: v\u010faka r\u00f4znorod\u00e9mu podnebiu a 15 mili\u00f3nom hekt\u00e1rov po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskej p\u00f4dy je Ir\u00e1n v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm producentom tovarov ako pist\u00e1cie (historicky najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed svetov\u00fd export\u00e9r), \u0161afran (viac ako 90\u202f% svetovej produkcie) a ovocie. So zavla\u017eovan\u00edm, invest\u00edciami a otvoren\u00fdm obchodom by mohol v\u00fdrazne zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 po\u013enohospod\u00e1rsky export, \u010do by prospelo glob\u00e1lnym potravinov\u00fdm trhom. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A napokon, ve\u013ek\u00fd potenci\u00e1l m\u00e1 aj cestovn\u00fd ruch. Ir\u00e1nska kult\u00farna hist\u00f3ria \u2014 perzsk\u00e1 civiliz\u00e1cia, archeologick\u00e9 pamiatky, pestr\u00e9 pr\u00edrodn\u00e9 scen\u00e9rie \u2014 ka\u017edoro\u010dne pri\u0165ahovala 7 \u2013 8 mili\u00f3nov turistov v rokoch pred pand\u00e9miou. Napriek geopolitick\u00e9mu nap\u00e4tiu nav\u0161t\u00edvilo krajinu 7,4 mili\u00f3na zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch turistov po\u010das posledn\u00e9ho ir\u00e1nskeho roka (marec 2024 \u2013 marec 2025). Normaliz\u00e1cia vz\u0165ahov by mohla po\u010det n\u00e1v\u0161tevn\u00edkov v\u00fdrazne zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 a prinies\u0165 miliardy pr\u00edjmov cez cestovn\u00fd ruch, hotelierstvo a infra\u0161trukt\u00farne invest\u00edcie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stru\u010dne povedan\u00e9, diplomatick\u00e9 urovnanie, ktor\u00e9 by Ir\u00e1n op\u00e4\u0165 integrovalo do medzin\u00e1rodn\u00e9ho spolo\u010denstva, by mohlo spusti\u0165 vlnu nov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vok naprie\u010d viacer\u00fdmi trhmi. Ropa je hlavnou komoditou \u2014 dodato\u010dn\u00e9 ir\u00e1nske barely by tla\u010dili ceny nadol (\u010do by pote\u0161ilo dovozcov aj bojovn\u00edkov s infl\u00e1ciou). Energetick\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnos\u0165 Eur\u00f3py by sa posilnila pr\u00edchodom \u010fal\u0161ieho ve\u013ek\u00e9ho dod\u00e1vate\u013ea plynu. Kovy a in\u00e9 komodity by mohli ma\u0165 nov\u00e9 zdroje, \u010do by mohlo obmedzi\u0165 rast cien. Investori by z\u00e1rove\u0148 z\u00edskali pr\u00edstup na nov\u00fd, ve\u013ek\u00fd rozv\u00edjaj\u00faci sa trh so 85 mili\u00f3nmi obyvate\u013eov a bohat\u00fdmi zdrojmi \u2014 \u010do by predstavovalo v\u00fdznamn\u00fd impulz pre priame zahrani\u010dn\u00e9 invest\u00edcie do v\u0161etk\u00e9ho od petrochemik\u00e1li\u00ed a\u017e po spotrebn\u00fd tovar a cestovn\u00fd ruch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tento \u201emierov\u00fd dividendov\u00fd\u201c scen\u00e1r zatia\u013e nie je zahrnut\u00fd v trhov\u00fdch o\u010dak\u00e1vaniach, no u\u017e len jeho mo\u017enos\u0165 predstavuje protiv\u00e1hu k rizik\u00e1m vojny. Nazna\u010duje, \u017ee ak by konflikt viedol k politick\u00e9mu posunu, strednodob\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkom by mohli by\u0165 ni\u017e\u0161ie energetick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady a nov\u00e9 pr\u00edle\u017eitosti na rast vo svete \u2014 namiesto stagfl\u00e1cie. Ak by sa v\u0161ak konflikt vyhrotil, hroz\u00ed dlhodob\u00fd obchodn\u00fd spor, ktor\u00fd by mal rozsiahle ekonomick\u00e9 d\u00f4sledky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n


Upozornenie: P\u00f4vodne pripraven\u00e9 v anglickom jazyku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amirali Khaleghi, CFA (Portfolio Manager & Investment Strategist)
Alexander Chizganov (Portfolio Manager)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

K 18. j\u00fanu 2025 Vypuknutie konfliktu \u2014 trhy v pohotovosti N\u00e1hly konflikt medzi Ir\u00e1nom a Izraelom otriasol celosvetov\u00fdch investorov. Boje vypukli minul\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148, ke\u010f Izrael uskuto\u010dnil prekvapiv\u00e9 \u00fatoky na ir\u00e1nske jadrov\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 objekty, \u010do vyvolalo intenz\u00edvnu diplomatick\u00fa aktivitu. Diplomacia za\u010dala aktivitu z najvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch miest \u2014 americk\u00fd prezident Trump dokonca pred\u010dasne opustil summit G7, aby … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1946,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[177],"insight_author":[174],"class_list":["post-5293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-wem-market-pulse"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWEM Market Pulse: Ir\u00e1nsko-izraelsk\u00fd konflikt - Wealth Effect Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wem.sk\/cs\/insights\/wem-market-pulse-iransko-izraelsky-konflikt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"WEM Market Pulse: Ir\u00e1nsko-izraelsk\u00fd konflikt - Wealth Effect Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"K 18. j\u00fanu 2025 Vypuknutie konfliktu \u2014 trhy v pohotovosti N\u00e1hly konflikt medzi Ir\u00e1nom a Izraelom otriasol celosvetov\u00fdch investorov. Boje vypukli minul\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148, ke\u010f Izrael uskuto\u010dnil prekvapiv\u00e9 \u00fatoky na ir\u00e1nske jadrov\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 objekty, \u010do vyvolalo intenz\u00edvnu diplomatick\u00fa aktivitu. 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