{"id":5301,"date":"2026-01-15T16:42:49","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T15:42:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wem.sk\/insights\/wem-market-pulse-10-najvacsich-geopolitickych-rizik-roka-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-01-15T16:42:49","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T15:42:49","slug":"wem-market-pulse-10-najvacsich-geopolitickych-rizik-roka-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wem.sk\/cs\/insights\/wem-market-pulse-10-najvacsich-geopolitickych-rizik-roka-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"WEM Market Pulse\/Janu\u00e1r 2026 \u2014 10 najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edch geopolitick\u00fdch riz\u00edk roka 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

15. janu\u00e1ra 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Hne\u010f prv\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 roka 2026 n\u00e1m bez varovania pripomenul, \u017ee vstupujeme do obdobia v\u00fdrazne rast\u00facej d\u00f4le\u017eitosti geopolitick\u00fdch riz\u00edk. Preto pon\u00fakame stru\u010dn\u00e9 zhrnutie najv\u00fdznamnej\u0161\u00edch riz\u00edk pod\u013ea novoro\u010dnej anal\u00fdzy Eurasia Group (EAG), doplnen\u00e9 o n\u00e1\u0161 poh\u013ead na to, ako tieto rizik\u00e1 m\u00f4\u017eu ovplyvni\u0165 investi\u010dn\u00e9 portf\u00f3li\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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1. Politick\u00e1 revol\u00facia v USA<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

USA za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00fa politick\u00fa revol\u00faciu. Prezident Donald Trump sa pod\u013ea EAG systematicky usiluje o rozbitie \u00fastavn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu b\u0155zd a protiv\u00e1h, o \u00fapln\u00e9 ovl\u00e1dnutie mocenskej ma\u0161in\u00e9rie a jej pou\u017eitie ako zbrane proti nepriate\u013eom. U\u017e vlani varoval, \u017ee nast\u00fapila \u201cVl\u00e1da Dona\u201d a to, \u010do za\u010dalo ako taktick\u00e9 poru\u0161ovanie noriem, sa vyvinulo do systematickej transform\u00e1cie, ktor\u00e1 prekra\u010duje tvrd\u00e9 presadzovanie stran\u00edckej politiky \u010di konanie nad r\u00e1mec prezidentsk\u00fdch pr\u00e1vomoc\u00ed, pri\u010dom je to kvalitat\u00edvne v\u00e1\u017enej\u0161ie, ne\u017e o \u010do sa v hist\u00f3rii pok\u00fasili aj t\u00ed najambici\u00f3znej\u0161\u00ed prezidenti (ako napr\u00edklad Franklin Delano Roosevelt). Ke\u010f\u017ee mnoh\u00e9 z reguluj\u00facich bari\u00e9r, ktor\u00e9 e\u0161te dr\u017eali po\u010das prv\u00e9ho funk\u010dn\u00e9ho obdobia Donalda Trumpa, postupne padaj\u00fa, Eurasia Group sa ob\u00e1va, \u017ee nemo\u017eno s istotou poveda\u0165, ako bude vyzera\u0165 politick\u00fd syst\u00e9m v USA po tejto revol\u00facii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investi\u010dn\u00e9 implik\u00e1cie riz\u00edk:<\/strong>
Obava z oslabenia in\u0161titucion\u00e1lnych b\u0155zd a protiv\u00e1h pre investorov znamen\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161enie po\u017eadovanej rizikovej pr\u00e9mie za dr\u017eanie americk\u00fdch akt\u00edv. N\u00e1rast geopolitick\u00e9ho rizika spravidla vedie k ni\u017e\u0161ej ne\u017e optim\u00e1lnej miere firemn\u00fdch invest\u00edci\u00ed, ale aj k ich hor\u0161ej efektivite. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 riziko sp\u00f4sobuje trenia a nap\u00e4tia, ktor\u00e9 s\u0165a\u017euj\u00fa optim\u00e1lne investi\u010dn\u00e9 rozhodnutia. Rast\u00fa preto argumenty v prospech diverzifik\u00e1cie na trhoch mimo USA, najm\u00e4 v Eur\u00f3pe a v \u00c1zii. Ako \u010fal\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1stroj na zmiernenie d\u00f4sledkov tohto rizika mo\u017eno uva\u017eova\u0165 o \u0161t\u00e1tnych dlhopisoch a cenn\u00fdch kovoch. Dlhopisy funguj\u00fa najm\u00e4 ako poistka pre pr\u00edpad oslabenia hospod\u00e1rskeho rastu a re\u00e1lne akt\u00edva ako poistka pre pr\u00edpad zr\u00fdchlenia infl\u00e1cie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Nadvl\u00e1da elektriny<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Technol\u00f3gie, ktor\u00e9 definuj\u00fa hospod\u00e1rstvo 21. storo\u010dia, be\u017eia na elektr\u00f3noch: elektromobily, drony, roboty, sofistikovan\u00fd priemysel, inteligentn\u00e9 rozvodn\u00e9 siete, bat\u00e9riov\u00e9 \u00falo\u017eisk\u00e1 a v neposlednom rade aj umel\u00e1 inteligencia. V\u0161etky tieto syst\u00e9my sp\u00e1ja spolo\u010dn\u00fd z\u00e1klad: \u201eelektrick\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nok\u201c (bat\u00e9rie, motory, elektronika, po\u010d\u00edta\u010de). Kto m\u00e1 moc nad prvkami, z ktor\u00fdch sa vyr\u00e1baj\u00fa tieto \u010dl\u00e1nky, m\u00f4\u017ee vybudova\u0165 \u010doko\u013evek, \u010do si modern\u00e1 ekonomika vy\u017eaduje. Kto nad nimi strat\u00ed kontrolu, bude odk\u00e1zan\u00fd kupova\u0165 si bud\u00facnos\u0165 od niekoho cudzieho, zhrnula EAG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investi\u010dn\u00e9 implik\u00e1cie riz\u00edk<\/strong>:
Dominancia \u010c\u00edny v oblasti in\u0161talovan\u00e9ho elektrick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu sa dotkne tak t\u00e9my cien energi\u00ed, ako aj pretekov v oblasti umelej inteligencie. Zr\u00fdchlia sa aj snahy o zn\u00ed\u017eenie z\u00e1vislosti od \u010c\u00edny v dod\u00e1vkach prvkov z takzvan\u00fdch vz\u00e1cnych zem\u00edn. Tie bud\u00fa na\u010falej zauj\u00edmav\u00e9 pre investorov, rovnako ako invest\u00edcie v oblasti obrany a najm\u00e4 technologick\u00fdch inov\u00e1ci\u00ed v obrane. Uznanie d\u00f4le\u017eitosti geopolitick\u00fdch riz\u00edk bude vies\u0165 firmy k zvy\u0161ovaniu odolnosti svojich dod\u00e1vate\u013esk\u00fdch siet\u00ed, \u010do m\u00f4\u017ee znamena\u0165 aj posilnenie z\u00e1sob pre pr\u00edpad n\u00fadze. Obnovite\u013en\u00e9 zdroje energie mo\u017eno vo v\u0161eobecnosti pova\u017eova\u0165 za odolnej\u0161ie ne\u017e tie fos\u00edlne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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3. Donroeova doktr\u00edna<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Administrat\u00edva prezidenta Donalda Trumpa o\u017eivila \u2014 a po svojom si vylo\u017eila logiku tzv. Monroeovej doktr\u00edny t\u00fdm, \u017ee sa usiluje o posilnenie svojej moci nad z\u00e1padnou pologu\u013eou. K\u00fdm p\u00f4vodn\u00e1 verzia tejto doktr\u00edny z 19. storo\u010dia vystr\u00edhala extern\u00e9 mocnosti pred zasahovan\u00edm na americk\u00fdch kontinentoch, Trumpova verzia tento koncept roz\u0161\u00edrila. Usiluje sa nielen o obmedzenie vplyvu \u010c\u00edny, Ruska a Ir\u00e1nu na z\u00e1padnej pologuli, ale akt\u00edvne presadzuje ved\u00facu poz\u00edciu USA prostredn\u00edctvom kombin\u00e1cie vojensk\u00e9ho tlaku, ekonomick\u00e9ho n\u00e1tlaku, vytv\u00e1rania selekt\u00edvnych alianci\u00ed a vyrovn\u00e1vania si osobn\u00fdch \u00fa\u010dtov prezidenta. Tak\u00fdto postoj v roku 2026 zvy\u0161uje riziko premr\u0161tenej politiky a nezam\u00fd\u0161\u013ean\u00fdch d\u00f4sledkov, mieni EAG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investi\u010dn\u00e9 implik\u00e1cie riz\u00edk:<\/strong>
Anal\u00fdza nazna\u010duje, \u017ee riziko premr\u0161tenej reakcie USA m\u00f4\u017ee v Ju\u017enej Amerike prev\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 doteraj\u0161ie rizik\u00e1 spojen\u00e9 s ne\u0161t\u00e1tnymi sie\u0165ami vplyvu. Geopolitick\u00e9 nap\u00e4tie tak m\u00f4\u017ee ohrozi\u0165 glob\u00e1lne dod\u00e1vate\u013esk\u00e9 re\u0165azce, \u010do je aj z finan\u010dn\u00e9ho poh\u013eadu nezanedbate\u013en\u00e9 riziko pre najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie glob\u00e1lne korpor\u00e1cie. Aj pri zoh\u013eadnen\u00ed rizika cie\u013eovej krajiny m\u00f4\u017ee regi\u00f3n nepriaznivo ovplyvni\u0165 prenesen\u00e9 riziko z oslabenia portf\u00f3liov\u00fdch invest\u00edci\u00ed do USA. Rizik\u00e1 spojen\u00e9 s n\u00e1rastom migr\u00e1cie a politickej nestability mo\u017eno hed\u017eova\u0165 napr\u00edklad energetick\u00fdmi komoditami.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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4. Eur\u00f3pa v obk\u013e\u00fa\u010den\u00ed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U\u017e desa\u0165ro\u010die doch\u00e1dza k prehlbovaniu dutiny v eur\u00f3pskom politickom strede. Franc\u00fazsko, Nemecko a Ve\u013ek\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nia vstupuj\u00fa do nov\u00e9ho roka so slab\u00fdmi a nepopul\u00e1rnymi vl\u00e1dami, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa v obk\u013e\u00fa\u010den\u00ed populistickej pravice, populistickej \u013eavice a americkej administrat\u00edvy a soci\u00e1lnych m\u00e9di\u00ed, ktor\u00e9 s \u0148ou spolupracuj\u00fa a otvorene volaj\u00fa po ich p\u00e1de. Tento rok nie s\u00fa v \u017eiadnej z t\u00fdchto kraj\u00edn pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 parlamentn\u00e9 vo\u013eby. No v\u0161etky tri \u010delia prinajlep\u0161om riziku paral\u00fdzy a prinajhor\u0161om destabiliz\u00e1cii \u2014 a minim\u00e1lne jeden z ich l\u00eddrov m\u00f4\u017ee padn\u00fa\u0165, varuje EAG. D\u00f4sledky tak\u00e9hoto v\u00fdvoja nezostan\u00fa pod kontrolou: doplat\u00ed na to schopnos\u0165 Eur\u00f3py vyrovna\u0165 sa s hospod\u00e1rskou nedu\u017eivos\u0165ou, vyplni\u0165 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00e9 v\u00e1kuum po \u00fastupe USA a udr\u017ea\u0165 bojaschopnos\u0165 Ukrajiny, vystr\u00edha EAG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investi\u010dn\u00e9 implik\u00e1cie riz\u00edk:<\/strong>
Ak by sa naplnili najhor\u0161ie obavy t\u00fdkaj\u00face sa kolapsu stredov\u00fdch str\u00e1n, signalizovalo by to hrozbu nepriaznivej dlhovej \u0161pir\u00e1ly aj er\u00f3zie podpory pre Ukrajinu. K zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdm geopolitick\u00fdm rizik\u00e1m prispieva aj to, \u017ee eur\u00f3psky trh sa st\u00e1le vyrovn\u00e1va s d\u00f4sledkami zavedenia nepriate\u013esk\u00fdch ciel zo strany USA. Riziko n\u00e1rastu populizmu v z\u00e1padnej Eur\u00f3pe sa u\u017e prejavuje v raste rizikov\u00fdch prir\u00e1\u017eok \u0161t\u00e1tnych dlhopisov. Hrozba prekreslenia politickej mapy m\u00f4\u017ee n\u00fati\u0165 nadn\u00e1rodn\u00e9 koncerny prehodnoti\u0165 nielen dod\u00e1vate\u013esk\u00e9 re\u0165azce, ale aj rozlo\u017eenie v\u00fdrobn\u00fdch z\u00e1vodov \u010di pl\u00e1ny pre priame cezhrani\u010dn\u00e9 invest\u00edcie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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5. Druh\u00e1 frontov\u00e1 l\u00ednia Ruska<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Najnebezpe\u010dnej\u0161ia frontov\u00e1 l\u00ednia v Eur\u00f3pe sa tento rok presunie zo z\u00e1kopov Donbasu do hybridnej vojny medzi Ruskom a NATO, varuje Eurasia Group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investi\u010dn\u00e9 implik\u00e1cie riz\u00edk<\/strong>:
Takzvan\u00e9 oper\u00e1cie Ruska v \u0161edej z\u00f3ne m\u00f4\u017eu znamena\u0165 priamej\u0161ie, \u010dastej\u0161ie a nebezpe\u010dnej\u0161ie konfront\u00e1cie medzi krajinami NATO a Ruskom. Paradoxne, po geopolitikou sp\u00f4soben\u00fdch kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch \u0161okoch spravidla nasleduj\u00fa vy\u0161\u0161ie ceny akci\u00ed, najm\u00e4 v strednodobom horizonte. U\u017e v uplynulom roku 2025 bola reakcia trhov s energonosi\u010dmi na geopolitick\u00e9 \u0161oky utlmen\u00e1, no napriek tomu bud\u00fa dod\u00e1vky, celkov\u00fd dopyt po energi\u00e1ch a teda aj ich ceny, predmetom zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdch v\u00fdkyvov. Pod\u013ea prieskumu Morgan Stanley m\u00e1 77 % in\u0161titucion\u00e1lnych investorov v E\u00da a 81 % v Severnej Amerike b\u00fd\u010die o\u010dak\u00e1vania vo\u010di akci\u00e1m z obrann\u00e9ho priemyslu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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6. \u0160t\u00e1tny kapitalizmus s americk\u00fdmi \u010drtami<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Vlani Eurasia Group varovala, \u017ee novozvolen\u00fd prezident Donald Trump rozvinie v najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ej svetovej ekonomike politicky orientovan\u00fd (rodink\u00e1rsky) kapitalizmus. To, \u010doho sme nakoniec boli svedkami, bola ekonomicky najv\u00fdraznej\u0161ia intervencionistick\u00e1 administrat\u00edva od konca ve\u013ekej hospod\u00e1rskej kr\u00edzy. V roku 2026 sa tento intervencionizmus e\u0161te viac roz\u0161\u00edri a \u010falej zakoren\u00ed, \u010do ovplyvn\u00ed vz\u0165ah medzi americk\u00fdm verejn\u00fdm a s\u00fakromn\u00fdm sektorom. Ako Donald Trump povedal pre The Wall Street Journal: \u201eMysl\u00edm si, \u017ee by sme mali z\u00edska\u0165 podiely vo firm\u00e1ch. Hoci niektor\u00ed by povedali, \u017ee to neznie ve\u013emi americky. Ja si v\u0161ak mysl\u00edm, \u017ee to je ve\u013emi americk\u00e9.\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investi\u010dn\u00e9 implik\u00e1cie riz\u00edk<\/strong>:
Intervencionizmus americk\u00e9ho prezidenta znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jeho administrat\u00edva si medzi firmami vyber\u00e1 v\u00ed\u0165azov a porazen\u00fdch v rozsahu, ak\u00fd modern\u00e1 hist\u00f3ria USA e\u0161te neza\u017eila. Geopolitick\u00e1 nestabilita bude podkop\u00e1va\u0165 firemn\u00e9 invest\u00edcie. T\u00e1to politika bude pria\u0165 akci\u00e1m firiem vych\u00e1dzaj\u00facim v \u00fastrety po\u017eiadavk\u00e1m administrat\u00edvy, no na mieste je dostato\u010dn\u00e1 diverzifik\u00e1cia. Akt\u00edvni portf\u00f3lio mana\u017e\u00e9ri bud\u00fa na oboch brehoch Atlantiku h\u013eada\u0165 pr\u00edle\u017eitosti na zhodnotenie v invest\u00edci\u00e1ch, ktor\u00e9 prin\u00e1\u0161aj\u00fa rie\u0161enia pre zabezpe\u010denie dod\u00e1vok surov\u00edn, posilnenie odolnosti dod\u00e1vate\u013esk\u00fdch re\u0165azcov, diverzifik\u00e1ciu zdrojov energi\u00ed a posilnenie n\u00e1rodnej bezpe\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

7. \u010c\u00ednska defla\u010dn\u00e1 pasca<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u010c\u00ednska defla\u010dn\u00e1 \u0161pir\u00e1la sa v roku 2026 preh\u013abi a Peking nepodnikne ni\u010d, aby ju zastavil. S bl\u00ed\u017eiacim sa 21. zjazdom strany v roku 2027 sa prezident Xi Jinping prioritne s\u00fastred\u00ed na posilnenie politickej moci a technologick\u00e9ho n\u00e1skoku namiesto stimulovania spotreby a \u0161truktur\u00e1lnych reforiem, ktor\u00e9 by mohli prelomi\u0165 defla\u010dn\u00fd kolobeh. Peking m\u00e1 prostriedky, aby predi\u0161iel kr\u00edze, no \u017eivotn\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 sa zhor\u0161\u00ed, negat\u00edvne d\u00f4sledky sa roz\u0161\u00edria za hranice a druh\u00e1 najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ia ekonomika sveta zostane zaseknut\u00e1 v pasci, ktor\u00fa si sama sp\u00f4sobila.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investi\u010dn\u00e9 implik\u00e1cie riz\u00edk<\/strong>:
Ak by sa preh\u013abilo riziko defl\u00e1cie, predstavovalo by to hrozbu vo forme v\u00fdvozu hospod\u00e1rskeho \u0161oku, teda pr\u00edpadn\u00e9 vyko\u013eajenie \u010c\u00edny by bolo cite\u013en\u00e9 aj za jej hranicami. Treba si da\u0165 pozor na mo\u017en\u00fd nepriazniv\u00fd vplyv \u0161okov sp\u00f4soben\u00fdch geopolitick\u00fdm rizikom na dlhopisov\u00e9 invest\u00edcie zameran\u00e9 na krit\u00e9ri\u00e1 ESG, vr\u00e1tane modr\u00fdch, zelen\u00fdch, klimatick\u00fdch, udr\u017eate\u013en\u00fdch \u010di soci\u00e1lnych dlhopisov. V pr\u00edpade naplnenia tohto rizika by bolo na mieste by\u0165 pripraven\u00fd zv\u00fd\u0161enou v\u00e1hou dlhopisov a zn\u00ed\u017eenou v\u00e1hou akci\u00ed z \u010c\u00edny, ke\u010f\u017ee \u010d\u00ednske v\u00fdnosy do splatnosti by mohli \u010falej klesn\u00fa\u0165. V najhor\u0161om pr\u00edpade je potrebn\u00e9 by\u0165 poisten\u00fd aj pre pr\u00edpad poklesu cien komod\u00edt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

8. Umel\u00e1 inteligencia zhltne u\u017e\u00edvate\u013eov<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pod tlakom na generovanie tr\u017eieb a bez obmedzuj\u00facich regul\u00e1ci\u00ed sa v roku 2026 mno\u017estvo ved\u00facich korpor\u00e1ci\u00ed v sektore umelej inteligencie rozhodne pre podnikate\u013esk\u00e9 modely, ktor\u00e9 ohrozia spolo\u010densk\u00fa a politick\u00fa stabilitu \u2014 in\u0161piruj\u00fac sa pr\u00edkladom de\u0161trukt\u00edvneho modelu soci\u00e1lnych m\u00e9di\u00ed, len r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie a v ove\u013ea v\u00e4\u010d\u0161om rozsahu, vystr\u00edha EAG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investi\u010dn\u00e9 implik\u00e1cie riz\u00edk<\/strong>:
Pr\u00e1ve potenci\u00e1lne riziko toho, \u017ee by si firmy z oblasti umelej inteligencie osvojili podnikate\u013esk\u00e9 modely, ktor\u00e9 by profitovali na \u00fakor pou\u017e\u00edvate\u013eov a boli spolo\u010densky dysfunk\u010dn\u00e9, predstavuje riziko pre mo\u017en\u00e9 splasnutie ob\u00e1vanej bubliny invest\u00edci\u00ed do AI infra\u0161trukt\u00fary. V pr\u00edpade tohto rizika nemus\u00ed nevyhnutne plati\u0165, \u017ee geopolitick\u00e9 \u0161oky s\u00fa len kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9, a treba by\u0165 pripraven\u00fd na pl\u00e1novanie pre rozli\u010dn\u00e9 scen\u00e1re. Medzi\u010dasom bude doch\u00e1dza\u0165 ku\u202fkanibaliz\u00e1cii pou\u017e\u00edvate\u013eov t\u00fdm, \u017ee AI korpor\u00e1cie vystavia stovky mili\u00f3nov \u013eud\u00ed psychologick\u00fdm experimentom v\u202f\u017eivom prenose. Vy\u0161\u0161iu v\u00e1hu pri investovan\u00ed mo\u017eno prip\u00edsa\u0165 t\u00fdm rie\u0161eniam umelej inteligencie, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa navrhnut\u00e9 pre konkr\u00e9tne \u00fa\u010dely  s komer\u010dn\u00fdm vyu\u017eit\u00edm, napr\u00edklad v oblasti biotechnol\u00f3gi\u00ed. Je na mieste by\u0165 obozretn\u00fd vo\u010di riziku opakovania technologickej bubliny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

9. Severoamerick\u00fd obchod<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Vz\u00e1jomn\u00fd obchod ostane v roku 2026 zaseknut\u00fd. Dohoda medzi USA, Mexikom a Kanadou (USMCA) sa neroz\u0161\u00edri, neaktualizuje ani nezru\u0161\u00ed. Bude sa pot\u00e1ca\u0165 ako \u201ezombie\u201c, pri\u010dom ani firmy, ani vl\u00e1dy nebud\u00fa vedie\u0165, na \u010dom s\u00fa, k\u00fdm prezident Trump bude pokra\u010dova\u0165 vo vyjedn\u00e1vaniach s dvoma najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edmi obchodn\u00fdmi partnermi USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investi\u010dn\u00e9 implik\u00e1cie riz\u00edk<\/strong>:
Zaseknutie vz\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho obchodu v Severnej Amerike predstavuje chronick\u00fa neistotu. To skomplikuje cezhrani\u010dn\u00e9 toky portf\u00f3liov\u00fdch aj priamych invest\u00edci\u00ed. Nie je to dobr\u00e1 spr\u00e1va pre priemyseln\u00e9 invest\u00edcie na kontinente. Mierne lep\u0161ou spr\u00e1vou je to pre korpor\u00e1cie, ktor\u00e9 maj\u00fa n\u00e1stroje, ako presun\u00fa\u0165 kapacity sp\u00e4\u0165 do USA. Tak ako na celom svete, aj severoamerick\u00e9 firmy bud\u00fa revidova\u0165 a nanovo prisp\u00f4sobova\u0165 trasy dod\u00e1vate\u013esk\u00fdch re\u0165azcov tak, aby lep\u0161ie zoh\u013ead\u0148ovali rozlo\u017eenie geopolitick\u00fdch vplyvov, a nie iba n\u00e1kladov\u00e9 v\u00fdhody.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

10. Voda ako zbra\u0148<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Z vody sa st\u00e1va spolo\u010dn\u00fd zdroj plan\u00e9ty, o ktor\u00fd sa ved\u00fa najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie spory. V roku 2026 sa tlaky dopytu zintenz\u00edvnia, preh\u013abi sa v\u00e1kuum kontroly nad \u0148ou a z vody sa stane nabit\u00e1 zbra\u0148 v pr\u00edpade viacer\u00fdch vysoko nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch s\u00faperen\u00ed medzi rivalsk\u00fdmi \u0161t\u00e1tmi \u2014 a n\u00e1stroj, prostredn\u00edctvom ktor\u00e9ho bud\u00fa ne\u0161t\u00e1tni akt\u00e9ri profitova\u0165 zo slabosti \u0161t\u00e1tov. To, \u010do sa pova\u017eovalo za humanit\u00e1rnu kr\u00edzu, prerastie do ohrozenia n\u00e1rodnej bezpe\u010dnosti, kon\u0161tatuje EAG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investi\u010dn\u00e9 implik\u00e1cie riz\u00edk<\/strong>:
To, \u017ee z pr\u00edstupu k vode sa v regi\u00f3noch okolo riek ako N\u00edl \u010di Indus m\u00f4\u017ee sta\u0165 zbra\u0148, predstavuje komplexn\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00e9 riziko, ktor\u00e9 si vy\u017eaduje poistenie v pr\u00edpade dlhopisov z dotknut\u00fdch rozv\u00edjaj\u00facich sa trhov, ako aj dlhopisov z kateg\u00f3rie ESG. Naopak, pria\u0165 to m\u00f4\u017ee po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskym invest\u00edci\u00e1m so spo\u013eahlivo spravovan\u00fdmi a odoln\u00fdmi zdrojmi vody. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Anal\u00fdza Eurasia Group z\u00e1rove\u0148 uv\u00e1dza aj nieko\u013eko faktorov, ktor\u00fdm sa pripisuje v\u00e1\u017enos\u0165, no v skuto\u010dnosti len odv\u00e1dzaj\u00fa pozornos\u0165. Neob\u00e1va sa zni\u010duj\u00faceho vplyvu americkej obchodnej vojny, predpoklad\u00e1 relat\u00edvnu stabilitu vo vz\u0165ahoch medzi USA a \u010c\u00ednou, napriek colnej politike Donalda Trumpa ne\u010dak\u00e1 z\u00e1sadn\u00fd obrat v globaliz\u00e1cii \u010di preh\u013abenie mocensk\u00fdch sf\u00e9r vplyvu najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edch mocnost\u00ed a za prehnan\u00e9 pova\u017euje aj obavy z v\u00fdpredaja americk\u00fdch akt\u00edv a invest\u00edci\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Zdroj: eurasiagroup.net<\/a> a investi\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fdh\u013eady GS, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Blackrock, BCG, Fitch, Wellington, Franklin Templeton, PGIM, Amundi.<\/mark><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
Vladim\u00edr Va\u0148o
<\/strong>Chief Economist<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

15. janu\u00e1ra 2026 Hne\u010f prv\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 roka 2026 n\u00e1m bez varovania pripomenul, \u017ee vstupujeme do obdobia v\u00fdrazne rast\u00facej d\u00f4le\u017eitosti geopolitick\u00fdch riz\u00edk. Preto pon\u00fakame stru\u010dn\u00e9 zhrnutie najv\u00fdznamnej\u0161\u00edch riz\u00edk pod\u013ea novoro\u010dnej anal\u00fdzy Eurasia Group (EAG), doplnen\u00e9 o n\u00e1\u0161 poh\u013ead na to, ako tieto rizik\u00e1 m\u00f4\u017eu ovplyvni\u0165 investi\u010dn\u00e9 portf\u00f3li\u00e1. 1. Politick\u00e1 revol\u00facia v USA USA za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00fa politick\u00fa revol\u00faciu. … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2037,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[177],"insight_author":[173],"class_list":["post-5301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-wem-market-pulse"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWEM Market Pulse\/Janu\u00e1r 2026 \u2014 10 najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edch geopolitick\u00fdch riz\u00edk roka 2026 - Wealth Effect Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wem.sk\/cs\/insights\/wem-market-pulse-10-najvacsich-geopolitickych-rizik-roka-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"WEM Market Pulse\/Janu\u00e1r 2026 \u2014 10 najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edch geopolitick\u00fdch riz\u00edk roka 2026 - Wealth Effect Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"15. janu\u00e1ra 2026 Hne\u010f prv\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 roka 2026 n\u00e1m bez varovania pripomenul, \u017ee vstupujeme do obdobia v\u00fdrazne rast\u00facej d\u00f4le\u017eitosti geopolitick\u00fdch riz\u00edk. 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