{"id":5303,"date":"2026-03-05T14:00:12","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T13:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wem.sk\/insights\/wem-market-pulse-trhy-nikdy-neprehravaju-vojnu-naozaj\/"},"modified":"2026-03-05T14:00:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T13:00:12","slug":"wem-market-pulse-trhy-nikdy-neprehravaju-vojnu-naozaj","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wem.sk\/cs\/insights\/wem-market-pulse-trhy-nikdy-neprehravaju-vojnu-naozaj\/","title":{"rendered":"WEM Market Pulse\/Marec 2026 \u2014 „Trhy nikdy neprehr\u00e1vaj\u00fa vojnu.“ Naozaj?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u201eKupujte, ke\u010f je krv na uliciach, aj ke\u010f je to va\u0161a vlastn\u00e1.\u201c
<\/em>\u2014 Pripisovan\u00e9 bar\u00f3novi Rothschildovi po\u010das Par\u00ed\u017eskej kom\u00fany v roku 1871<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201eNa\u010falej by som dr\u017eal akcie, aj keby som vedel, \u017ee pr\u00edde tretia svetov\u00e1 vojna.\u201c
<\/em>\u2014 Warren Buffett v telev\u00edzii CNBC v marci 2014, po anexii Krymu<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Ekonomick\u00e9 u\u010debnice ozna\u010duj\u00fa prv\u00fd a druh\u00fd \u201eropn\u00fd \u0161ok\u201c za dve z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 historick\u00e9 obdobia pre svetov\u00fa ekonomiku. Obe vyvolali udalosti na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode: ropn\u00e9 embargo z roku 1973 po jomkipurskej vojne a ir\u00e1nska revol\u00facia v rokoch 1978 \u2014 1979, ktor\u00e1 zosadila vtedaj\u0161ieho \u0161\u00e1ha Mohammada Rezu Pahlav\u00edho a od\u0161tartovala teokratick\u00fa vl\u00e1du Islamskej republiky vedenej najvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm vodcom Ajatoll\u00e1hom Ruholl\u00e1hom Chomejn\u00edm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeho n\u00e1stupca, Al\u00ed Hosejn\u00ed Chamene\u00ed, ktor\u00fd vl\u00e1dol Ir\u00e1nu od roku 1989, bol v sobotu usmrten\u00fd spolu s mno\u017estvom najvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch predstavite\u013eov re\u017eimu pri spolo\u010dn\u00fdch leteck\u00fdch \u00fatokoch Izraela a USA. Nasledoval mas\u00edvny odvetn\u00fd \u00fatok balistick\u00fdmi raketami a dronmi na prakticky cel\u00fd regi\u00f3n Perzsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, ktor\u00fd sa nevyhol ani mnoh\u00fdm prominentn\u00fdm civiln\u00fdm cie\u013eom, vr\u00e1tane let\u00edsk, ob\u013e\u00faben\u00fdch turistick\u00fdch destin\u00e1ci\u00ed, ako aj ropnej a plyn\u00e1renskej infra\u0161trukt\u00fary v z\u00e1live.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Udalosti uplynul\u00e9ho v\u00edkendu preto vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00fa d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fa ot\u00e1zku: do akej miery mo\u017eno t\u00fato oper\u00e1ciu pova\u017eova\u0165 za definit\u00edvny koniec 47-ro\u010dnej vl\u00e1dy teokratick\u00e9ho re\u017eimu Islamskej republiky a \u2014 rovnako d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fa ot\u00e1zku \u2014 do akej miery predstavuje tento v\u00fdvoj riziko pre glob\u00e1lne trhy? V tejto anal\u00fdze sa zameriavame najm\u00e4 na kontext toho druh\u00e9ho aspektu, predov\u0161etk\u00fdm z poh\u013eadu akciov\u00fdch investorov.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Trhy nikdy neprehr\u00e1vaj\u00fa vojnu<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pri poh\u013eade na novodob\u00fa hist\u00f3riu podobn\u00fdch z\u00e1sadn\u00fdch geopolitick\u00fdch udalost\u00ed porovnate\u013en\u00fdch s tou aktu\u00e1lnou sa vyn\u00e1ra podobn\u00fd vzor reakcie trhov: aj ke\u010f po prvotnom \u0161oku do\u0161lo k po\u010diato\u010dn\u00e9mu poklesu akciov\u00fdch trhov, ich v\u00fdkonnos\u0165 sa nakoniec v\u017edy zotavila.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ako nazna\u010duj\u00fa prilo\u017een\u00e9 infografiky (Pr\u00edloha D), hovor\u00edme o sk\u00fasenostiach z oper\u00e1cie P\u00fa\u0161tna b\u00farka v roku 1991, vojny v Afganistane v roku 2001 a vojny v Iraku v roku 2003. Pod\u013ea \u00fadajov S&P a Bloomberg po skon\u010den\u00ed druhej svetovej vojny (september 1945), k\u00f3rejskej vojny (j\u00fal 1953), vietnamskej vojny (apr\u00edl 1975), vojny v Perzskom z\u00e1live (febru\u00e1r 1991), irackej vojny (m\u00e1j 2003) \u010di dokonca rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu (od okt\u00f3bra 2022) predstavovalo priemern\u00e9 12-mesa\u010dn\u00e9 zhodnotenie po t\u00fdchto v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch konfliktoch 24,90 %.

Podrobn\u00e9 d\u00e1ta n\u00e1jdete v Pr\u00edlohe A: Historick\u00e9 prepady trhov a ich zotavenie.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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E\u0161te detailnej\u0161ia \u0161t\u00fadia Carson Investment Research, ktor\u00e1 mapuje v\u0161etk\u00fdch 43 v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch geopolitick\u00fdch udalost\u00ed od inv\u00e1zie do Franc\u00fazska v roku 1940, ukazuje, \u017ee mesiac po za\u010diatku t\u00fdchto udalost\u00ed bol index S&P 500 v pluse len v 46 % pr\u00edpadov s medi\u00e1novou stratou -0,20 %. Po \u0161iestich mesiacoch sa podiel pozit\u00edvnej v\u00fdkonnosti zvy\u0161uje na 61 % a po 12 mesiacoch na 65 % s medi\u00e1nov\u00fdm v\u00fdnosom 7,40 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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K\u013e\u00fa\u010dom s\u00fa energie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hoci vojny prin\u00e1\u0161aj\u00fa tragick\u00e9 straty na \u013eudsk\u00fdch \u017eivotoch, s nimi spojen\u00e9 zvy\u0161ovanie obrann\u00fdch v\u00fddavkov, znovubudovanie zni\u010denej infra\u0161trukt\u00fary, ako aj povojnov\u00e1 rekon\u0161trukcia patria medzi vzpruhy hospod\u00e1rskej aktivity. Aj ke\u010f si mus\u00edme pripomen\u00fa\u0165 paradox rozbit\u00e9ho okna, ktor\u00fd upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee vojnov\u00e9 ni\u010denie odv\u00e1dza zdroje od produkt\u00edvnej\u0161\u00edch aktiv\u00edt a hoci v \u0161tatistik\u00e1ch sa zaznamen\u00e1va ako tvorba hospod\u00e1rskej aktivity (a HDP), nejde o tvorbu nov\u00e9ho bohatstva spolo\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toto pozorovanie je v s\u00falade s predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facim upozornen\u00edm, \u017ee samotn\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 \u0161oky maj\u00fa na prevl\u00e1daj\u00face trendy finan\u010dn\u00fdch trhov spravidla len do\u010dasn\u00fd negat\u00edvny vplyv. Treba v\u0161ak venova\u0165 mimoriadnu pozornos\u0165 Prv\u00e9mu ropn\u00e9mu \u0161oku z roku 1973, ktor\u00fd mal dlhodob\u00fd negat\u00edvny dopad na zhodnotenie akciov\u00fdch trhov (po jomkipurskej vojne a po ropnom embargu). D\u00f4vodom bolo trv\u00e1cne a dlhodob\u00e9 obmedzenie dod\u00e1vok ropy, \u010do viedlo k takzvanej stagfl\u00e1cii \u2014 kombin\u00e1cii vysokej infl\u00e1cie sprev\u00e1dzanej nedu\u017eiv\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm rastom. Hospod\u00e1rstvo v 70. rokoch jednoducho
v d\u00f4sledku ropn\u00e9ho \u0161oku nefungovalo z\u010faleka efekt\u00edvne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Po ruskej inv\u00e1zii na Ukrajinu, ktor\u00e1 tie\u017e sp\u00f4sobila mas\u00edvny n\u00e1rast cien energetick\u00fdch surov\u00edn, sa v\u0161ak po roku 2022 objavili dod\u00e1vky surov\u00edn z nov\u00fdch zdrojov, v\u010faka \u010domu bol vplyv tohto \u0161oku na glob\u00e1lnu makroekonomiku a svetov\u00e9 trhy menej v\u00fdrazn\u00fd a menej trv\u00e1cny. Najp\u00e1l\u010divej\u0161ou ot\u00e1zkou preto zost\u00e1va: ktor\u00fd z t\u00fdchto dvoch extr\u00e9mov za\u017e\u00edvame v pr\u00edpade aktu\u00e1lneho \u00fatoku na Ir\u00e1n? Nejde pritom iba o energetick\u00e9 akciov\u00e9 tituly \u2014 energetick\u00e9 suroviny toti\u017e st\u00e1le predstavuj\u00fa hlavn\u00fd pohon hospod\u00e1rstva, a to aj v jeho bud\u00facej verzii poh\u00e1\u0148anej umelou inteligenciou.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Scen\u00e1re ovplyv\u0148uj\u00face (nielen komoditn\u00e9) trhy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0160tvrt\u00fd de\u0148 oper\u00e1ci\u00ed v Ir\u00e1ne prin\u00e1\u0161a turbulentn\u00fd pr\u00fad spr\u00e1v, vr\u00e1tane \u00fatokov na \u010dlena E\u00da, Cyprus, a vyslania gr\u00e9ckeho n\u00e1morn\u00edctva na jeho obranu. Rovnako r\u00fdchlo ako tok spr\u00e1v sa men\u00ed aj \u0161k\u00e1la mo\u017en\u00fdch scen\u00e1rov pre ropn\u00e9 trhy, glob\u00e1lnu makroekonomiku a v neposlednom rade pre samotn\u00fd Ir\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Najlep\u0161ia verzia je skor\u00e9 pr\u00edmerie, nazna\u010den\u00e9 americk\u00fdm prezidentom ako \u201evenezuelsk\u00fd scen\u00e1r\u201c. To by znamenalo n\u00e1vrat ceny ropy na \u00farove\u0148 pred eskal\u00e1ciou geopolitick\u00e9ho nap\u00e4tia a s t\u00fdm s\u00favisiaci pokles rizikovej pr\u00e9mie na trhoch s energetick\u00fdmi komoditami. Pokra\u010duj\u00faca podporn\u00e1 poz\u00edcia kartelu OPEC+, pripraven\u00e9ho pokra\u010dova\u0165 v zvy\u0161ovan\u00ed \u0165a\u017eby, ako aj vysok\u00fd objem ropy na mori odlo\u017eenej v nevylo\u017een\u00fdch tankeroch, vytv\u00e1raj\u00fa podmienky pre tak\u00fdto v\u00fdvoj v pr\u00edpade skor\u00e9ho dosiahnutia pr\u00edmeria a ukon\u010denia vojensk\u00fdch oper\u00e1ci\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na \u00faplne opa\u010dnom konci spektra je scen\u00e1r eskal\u00e1cie konven\u010dnej vojny, stup\u0148ovanie \u00fatokov na ropn\u00e9 zariadenia v z\u00e1live a uzavretie Hormuzsk\u00e9ho prielivu, \u010do by viedlo k dlhodob\u00fdm trojcifern\u00fdm cen\u00e1m ropy a negat\u00edvnemu dopadu na glob\u00e1lnu infl\u00e1ciu (jej zv\u00fd\u0161enie) aj ekonomick\u00fd rast (spomalenie).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Pre viac inform\u00e1ci\u00ed o variantoch v\u00fdvoja pozrite Pr\u00edlohu C: Diagram mo\u017en\u00fdch scen\u00e1rov. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Uprostred t\u00fdchto mantinelov je scen\u00e1r, ktor\u00fd by ur\u010dite najviac pote\u0161il ir\u00e1nskych demon\u0161trantov: zmena vl\u00e1dneho re\u017eimu v Ir\u00e1ne, ktor\u00e1 by z\u00e1rove\u0148 zn\u00ed\u017eila hrozby pre susedov v z\u00e1live a postupne odstr\u00e1nila rizikov\u00fa pr\u00e9miu z cien ropy. Aj keby zmena neprebehla \u00faplne hladko, ovplyvnilo by to st\u00e1le iba ir\u00e1nsku \u0165a\u017ebu ropy, ale u\u0161etrilo by to cel\u00fd regi\u00f3n, ktor\u00fd na\u010falej predstavuje p\u00e4tinu svetovej produkcie ropy aj skvapalnen\u00e9ho plynu LNG. Ako to nakoniec dopadne aj v t\u00fdch hor\u0161\u00edch variant\u00e1ch v\u00fdvoja, bude z\u00e1visie\u0165 od toho, \u010di bud\u00fa pokra\u010dova\u0165 \u00fatoky na ropn\u00e9 zariadenia u susedov v regi\u00f3ne a najm\u00e4 hrozba nepriechodnosti Hormuzsk\u00e9ho prielivu \u2014 do \u010doho v\u0161ak bud\u00fa \u010doraz viac hovori\u0165 aj \u010c\u00edna a \u010fal\u0161\u00ed \u00e1zijsk\u00ed odberatelia Ir\u00e1nu. Ke\u010f u\u017e hovor\u00edme o naj\u013eudnatej\u0161\u00edch krajin\u00e1ch sveta, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa z\u00e1rove\u0148 mas\u00edvnymi dovozcami energie, je dobr\u00e9 spomen\u00fa\u0165 aj Eur\u00f3psku \u00faniu, ktor\u00e1 by na dlhotrvaj\u00facu vojnu rovnako v\u00fdrazne doplatila.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na z\u00e1klade citlivosti cien ropy pozorovanej po\u010das 12-d\u0148ovej bombardovacej kampane proti Ir\u00e1nu minul\u00fd rok by najhor\u0161\u00ed scen\u00e1r \u00fapln\u00e9ho a trval\u00e9ho uzavretia Hormuzsk\u00e9ho prielivu zodpovedal skoku ceny ropy smerom a\u017e k \u00farovniam 120 USD\/barel \u010di dokonca vy\u0161\u0161ie \u2014 podobne ako kr\u00e1tko po za\u010diatku ruskej inv\u00e1zie na Ukrajinu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Zdroj: Wealth Effect Management. Hodnoty odvoden\u00e9 z anal\u00fdzy historick\u00fdch scen\u00e1rov a odhadov bud\u00faceho v\u00fdvoja.<\/mark><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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D\u00f4sledky pre trhy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Namiesto bin\u00e1rnej st\u00e1vky \u201evsadi\u0165 v\u0161etko alebo v\u0161etko vybra\u0165\u201c odpor\u00fa\u010dame d\u00f4kazmi podlo\u017een\u00fd investi\u010dn\u00fd pr\u00edstup, ktor\u00fd stavia na odolnosti portf\u00f3lia vo\u010di viacer\u00fdm mo\u017en\u00fdm scen\u00e1rom. T\u00e1to strat\u00e9gia uprednost\u0148uje postupn\u00e9 rebalancovanie pred likvid\u00e1ciou; dokupovan\u00edm akci\u00ed po\u010das trhov\u00fdch prepadov s cie\u013eom udr\u017eania relat\u00edvnych v\u00e1h investori predch\u00e1dzaj\u00fa v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu zaost\u00e1vaniu, ktor\u00e9 \u010dasto vznik\u00e1 pri vynechan\u00ed r\u00fdchlych zotaven\u00ed trhu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na zabezpe\u010denie pred tlakom sp\u00f4soben\u00fdm \u0161okom v oblasti energetick\u00fdch komod\u00edt alebo trv\u00e1cnej\u0161ie zr\u00fdchlenou infl\u00e1ciou odpor\u00fa\u010dame vrstven\u00e9 hed\u017eovanie \u2014 napr\u00edklad cez komodity, obrann\u00fd sektor a zlato \u2014 pri\u010dom zlato zost\u00e1va historicky efekt\u00edvnym taktick\u00fdm hed\u017eom proti geopolitick\u00e9mu riziku. Aj ke\u010f vysokokvalitn\u00e9 dlhopisy s\u00fa tradi\u010dn\u00fdm \u201erisk-off\u201c \u00fato\u010diskom v \u010dase zv\u00fd\u0161enej averzie k riziku, odpor\u00fa\u010dame selekt\u00edvny pr\u00edstup k dlhopisov\u00fdm invest\u00edci\u00e1m, preto\u017ee infla\u010dn\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 \u0161oky m\u00f4\u017eu tento hed\u017eing oslabi\u0165 rastom re\u00e1lnych v\u00fdnosov do splatnosti. V kone\u010dnom d\u00f4sledku preto hotovos\u0165 odpor\u00fa\u010dame pova\u017eova\u0165 sk\u00f4r za zdroj flexibility na likviditu a rebalancovanie ne\u017e za n\u00e1stroj na na\u010dasovanie trhu \u2014 historick\u00e1 penaliz\u00e1cia za vynechanie odrazu toti\u017e v\u00fdrazne prevy\u0161uje domnel\u00fa bezpe\u010dnos\u0165 panick\u00e9ho presunu do hotovosti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Podrobnej\u0161ie n\u00e1zory na pozicionovanie v akciov\u00fdch invest\u00edci\u00e1ch n\u00e1jdete v Pr\u00edlohe B: V\u00ed\u0165azi a porazen\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Z\u00e1very a hlavn\u00e9 rizik\u00e1: Nezab\u00fadajte na citlivos\u0165 americk\u00e9ho prezidenta na v\u00fdkonnos\u0165 trhov<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u201eD\u00fafajte v najlep\u0161ie, pripravte sa na najhor\u0161ie\u201c je obvykl\u00e1 rada v podobn\u00fdch nap\u00e4t\u00fdch obdobiach. Citlivos\u0165 americkej administrat\u00edvy na reakciu trhov je \u010fal\u0161\u00ed faktor, ktor\u00fd zohr\u00e1va \u00falohu. U\u017eito\u010dnou sa jav\u00ed paralela s vla\u0148aj\u0161\u00edm \u201eD\u0148om oslobodenia\u201c \u2014 niektor\u00ed koment\u00e1tori pova\u017euj\u00fa pr\u00e1ve pokles akciov\u00fdch trhov za faktor, ktor\u00fd v skuto\u010dnosti viedol k zm\u00e4k\u010deniu p\u00f4vodne hrozivo p\u00f4sobiacich v \u00favode prezentovan\u00fdch ciel, najm\u00e4 vo\u010di najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm korpor\u00e1ci\u00e1m s pr\u00edstupom do Bieleho domu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Podobn\u00e9 zretele bud\u00fa ur\u010dite zohr\u00e1va\u0165 \u00falohu na glob\u00e1lnom javisku aj v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti, najm\u00e4 vo vz\u0165ahu ku k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdm americk\u00fdm spojencom v z\u00e1live, z ktor\u00fdch niektor\u00ed u\u017e explicitne vyjadrili svoju nespokojnos\u0165. To pom\u00e1ha vysvetli\u0165 aj to, pre\u010do americk\u00fd prezident v pondelok po v\u00edkendov\u00fdch \u00fatokoch op\u00e4\u0165 spomenul \u201evenezuelsk\u00fd\u201c scen\u00e1r spolu s prekvapen\u00edm nad \u00fatokmi Ir\u00e1nu na nez\u00fa\u010dastnen\u00fdch susedov v Perzskom z\u00e1live. Pod\u013ea pozorovate\u013eov pr\u00e1ve to bolo s\u00fa\u010das\u0165ou zam\u00fd\u0161\u013eanej \u201ep\u00e1ky\u201c ir\u00e1nskeho re\u017eimu na USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pokia\u013e ide o komoditn\u00e9 trhy, geopolitick\u00e9 rizik\u00e1 na\u010falej zahmlievaj\u00fa v\u00fdvoj, ako zhrnuli ekon\u00f3movia z JP Morgan:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eHlavn\u00fdm rizikom zost\u00e1va, \u017ee by re\u017eim mohol strati\u0165 kontrolu nad Ir\u00e1nskymi revolu\u010dn\u00fdmi gardami \u2014 ako to nazna\u010duje ned\u00e1vny \u00fatok v Om\u00e1ne \u2014 \u010do by vytvorilo ove\u013ea nepredv\u00eddate\u013enej\u0161\u00ed a destabilizuj\u00faci scen\u00e1r pre dod\u00e1vky ropy z regi\u00f3nu a pre svetov\u00e9 trhy. Odveta Hizball\u00e1hu by tieto rizik\u00e1 mohla e\u0161te zosilni\u0165. Dlhodob\u00e1 eskal\u00e1cia \u2014 najm\u00e4 ak by Ir\u00e1n uplatnil ekonomick\u00fd tlak \u2014 by mohla zatla\u010di\u0165 ceny ropy ove\u013ea vy\u0161\u0161ie. Odhadujeme, \u017ee ak konflikt potrv\u00e1 viac ne\u017e tri t\u00fd\u017edne, producenti ropy z Perzsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu by naplnili v\u0161etky dostupn\u00e9 skladovacie kapacity a museli by zastavi\u0165 \u0165a\u017ebu. V tomto scen\u00e1ri by sa cena ropy Brent mohla obchodova\u0165 v p\u00e1sme 100 \u2014 120 USD. Vzh\u013eadom na \u010dasov\u00fa os t\u00fdchto nezn\u00e1mych v\u0161ak nateraz nemen\u00edme doteraj\u0161ie progn\u00f3zy cien ropy.\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Prilo\u017een\u00fd je graf scen\u00e1rov v\u00fdvoja pre ceny ropy pod\u013ea r\u00f4znych scen\u00e1rov v\u00fdvoja v Ir\u00e1ne od Goldman Sachs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Zdroj: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

APPENDIX A.: Historical Market Drawdowns and Recoveries<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
Zdroj: RBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg Professional Terminal.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

PR\u00cdLOHA B.: V\u00ed\u0165azi a porazen\u00ed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u010c\u00edna, India a E\u00da ako ve\u013ek\u00e9 ekonomiky z\u00e1visl\u00e9 od dovozu energetick\u00fdch komod\u00edt by v najhor\u0161om scen\u00e1ri stratili najviac. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 netreba zab\u00fada\u0165 na d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fa \u00falohu, ktor\u00fa st\u00e1le zohr\u00e1vaj\u00fa priemyseln\u00e9 politiky v naj\u013eudnatej\u0161\u00edch ekonomik\u00e1ch sveta, pri\u010dom priemyseln\u00e1 politika za\u010d\u00edna hra\u0165 d\u00f4le\u017eitej\u0161iu rolu aj v E\u00da \u2014 najm\u00e4 v obrannom priemysle (a jeho nearshoringu), v budovan\u00ed infra\u0161trukt\u00fary s du\u00e1lnym vyu\u017eit\u00edm, ako aj celkovo v t\u00e9me strategickej auton\u00f3mie nad r\u00e1mec energetickej bezpe\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ak by vy\u0161\u0161ie ceny ropy boli sp\u00f4soben\u00e9 v\u00fdpadkami dod\u00e1vok, krajiny Perzsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu by \u010delili trojn\u00e1sobnej negat\u00edvnej situ\u00e1cii: preru\u0161enie dod\u00e1vok ropy by sa pridalo k u\u017e utrpen\u00fdm strat\u00e1m v sektore cestovn\u00e9ho ruchu a dopravy, ke\u010f\u017ee \u010delia odvetn\u00fdm \u00fatokom Ir\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010cist\u00ed export\u00e9ri energetick\u00fdch komod\u00edt, ktor\u00ed sa nach\u00e1dzaj\u00fa v geograficky bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch oblastiach, by naopak profitovali \u2014 medzi nimi N\u00f3rsko a Kanada (spojenci E\u00da), ale aj Rusko.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00ed\u0165azi medzi sektormi s\u00fa obrann\u00fd priemysel, severoamerick\u00fd energetick\u00fd sektor a firmy p\u00f4sobiace v oblasti kyberbezpe\u010dnosti. Naopak, medzi porazen\u00fdmi s\u00fa leteck\u00e9 spolo\u010dnosti, majitelia v\u00fdletn\u00fdch lod\u00ed a spotrebn\u00fd sektor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V scen\u00e1ri dlhotrvaj\u00faceho ir\u00e1nskeho konfliktu by zo zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9ho geopolitick\u00e9ho nap\u00e4tia profitovalo nieko\u013eko sektorov. Obrann\u00ed giganti ako Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX Corporation (RTX), Northrop Grumman (NOC), General Dynamics (GD) a Boeing (BA) by z\u00edskali z nasadzovania protiraketovej obrany, dronovej vojny a dop\u013a\u0148ania mun\u00edcie. Severoamerick\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 firmy vr\u00e1tane ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Valero Energy (VLO), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Halliburton (HAL), Schlumberger (SLB), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Kinder Morgan (KMI) a Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) by vyu\u017eili medzery v dod\u00e1vkach, ke\u010f kupuj\u00faci h\u013eadaj\u00fa alternat\u00edvy. Kyberbezpe\u010dnostn\u00e9 spolo\u010dnosti ako CrowdStrike (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Fortinet (FTNT), Zscaler (ZS) a CyberArk (CYBR)
by profitovali z posilnenia ochrany kritickej infra\u0161trukt\u00fary. Sadzby za tankery by prudko st\u00fapli kv\u00f4li presmerovaniu obchodn\u00fdch tokov \u2014 \u010do by prospelo firm\u00e1m ako Frontline (FRO), Scorpio Tankers (STNG) a \u010fal\u0161\u00edm. Drah\u00e9 kovy by znova zohrali \u00falohu bezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho pr\u00edstavu \u2014 z \u010doho by \u0165a\u017eili firmy ako Newmont (NEM), Barrick Gold (GOLD) a \u010fal\u0161ie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Naopak, ur\u010dit\u00e9 sektory by \u010delili riziku oslabenia: spotrebn\u00fd sektor (Nike, Starbucks, Lululemon\u2026), sektor v\u00fdletn\u00fdch lod\u00ed (Carnival, Royal Caribbean\u2026), leteck\u00e9 spolo\u010dnosti (Delta, United, American\u2026) a cestovn\u00e9 agent\u00fary (Booking, Expedia, Airbnb\u2026).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

PR\u00cdLOHA C.: Sch\u00e9ma scen\u00e1rov mo\u017en\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
Zdroj: Portfolio Management Department of Wealth Effect Management.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

PR\u00cdLOHA D.: Reakcia americk\u00e9ho akciov\u00e9ho trhu na predch\u00e1dzaj\u00face vojny na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Zdroj: Wealth Effect Management; Tabu\u013eka z\u00edskan\u00e1 z Bloomberg Professional Terminal.<\/mark><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

PR\u00cdLOHA E.: V\u00fdkonnos\u0165 americk\u00e9ho akciov\u00e9ho trhu po v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch geopolitick\u00fdch udalostiach<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Zdroj: S&P Dow Jones Indices, CFSA, Strategas, Carson.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Napokon, to, ako sa t\u00e1to situ\u00e1cia vyvinie, bude z\u00e1visie\u0165 od intenzity, ale predov\u0161etk\u00fdm od trvania aktu\u00e1lnej eskal\u00e1cie nepriate\u013esk\u00fdch akci\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n
\"\"
Amirali Khaleghi, CFA<\/strong>
Portfolio Manager
& Investment Strategist<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"\"
Alexander Chizganov<\/strong>
Portfolio Manager<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"\"
Vladim\u00edr Va\u0148o<\/strong>
Chief Economist<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201eKupujte, ke\u010f je krv na uliciach, aj ke\u010f je to va\u0161a vlastn\u00e1.\u201c\u2014 Pripisovan\u00e9 bar\u00f3novi Rothschildovi po\u010das Par\u00ed\u017eskej kom\u00fany v roku 1871 \u201eNa\u010falej by som dr\u017eal akcie, aj keby som vedel, \u017ee pr\u00edde tretia svetov\u00e1 vojna.\u201c\u2014 Warren Buffett v telev\u00edzii CNBC v marci 2014, po anexii Krymu Ekonomick\u00e9 u\u010debnice ozna\u010duj\u00fa prv\u00fd a druh\u00fd \u201eropn\u00fd \u0161ok\u201c za … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1502,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[177],"insight_author":[174],"class_list":["post-5303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-wem-market-pulse"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWEM Market Pulse\/Marec 2026 \u2014 "Trhy nikdy neprehr\u00e1vaj\u00fa vojnu." Naozaj? - Wealth Effect Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wem.sk\/cs\/insights\/wem-market-pulse-trhy-nikdy-neprehravaju-vojnu-naozaj\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"WEM Market Pulse\/Marec 2026 \u2014 "Trhy nikdy neprehr\u00e1vaj\u00fa vojnu." 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