{"id":1428,"date":"2025-03-21T13:04:18","date_gmt":"2025-03-21T12:04:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wem.sk\/co-sa-deje-na-trhoch-a-co-s-tym-wem-market-pulse-marec-2025\/"},"modified":"2026-06-09T14:41:50","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T14:41:50","slug":"co-sa-deje-na-trhoch-a-co-s-tym-wem-market-pulse-marec-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wem.sk\/sk\/insights\/co-sa-deje-na-trhoch-a-co-s-tym-wem-market-pulse-marec-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010co sa deje na trhoch a \u010do s t\u00fdm \u2014 WEM Market Pulse, marec 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

K 11. marcu 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Volatilita trhov a ekonomick\u00e1 neistota: K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 faktory<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

V\u00fdkonnos\u0165 indexu S&P 500 za posledn\u00fd rok<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Zdroj: Bloomberg Professional Terminal<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Volatilita akciov\u00fdch trhov sa v poslednom \u010dase prudko zv\u00fd\u0161ila, \u010do viedlo k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu poklesu hlavn\u00fdch indexov. Od za\u010diatku roka klesol index S&P 500 k dne\u0161n\u00e9mu d\u0148u o 4,3 %<\/strong>. Tento pokles m\u00f4\u017ee sp\u00f4sobova\u0165  nieko\u013eko k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch faktorov:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Meniace sa o\u010dak\u00e1vania v oblasti ekonomickej politiky  <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Finan\u010dn\u00e9 trhy spo\u010diatku pozit\u00edvne reagovali na o\u010dak\u00e1vania t\u00fdkaj\u00face sa n\u00edzkych da\u0148ov\u00fdch sadzieb a rozsiahlej deregul\u00e1cie, \u010do sa pova\u017eovalo za priazniv\u00e9 pre ekonomick\u00fd rast a akciov\u00e9 trhy. Po zaveden\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch ciel na k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch obchodn\u00fdch partnerov a ohl\u00e1sen\u00ed \u010fal\u0161\u00edch mo\u017en\u00fdch obchodn\u00fdch obmedzen\u00ed sa v\u0161ak neistota zv\u00fd\u0161ila.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obavy narastaj\u00fa predov\u0161etk\u00fdm kv\u00f4li nepredv\u00eddate\u013enosti t\u00fdchto politick\u00fdch krokov. P\u00f4vodne sa predpokladalo, \u017ee zavedenie ciel bude sl\u00fa\u017ei\u0165 iba ako vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed n\u00e1stroj a bude kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9. Ned\u00e1vny v\u00fdvoj v\u0161ak u niektor\u00fdch investorov vyvolal skepsu. Nekonzistentn\u00e1 komunik\u00e1cia okolo colnej politiky len zv\u00fd\u0161ila neistotu na trhu, \u010do je stav, ktor\u00fd v minulosti v\u00fdrazne nar\u00fa\u0161al d\u00f4veru investorov.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hoci niektor\u00ed odborn\u00edci sa st\u00e1le domnievaj\u00fa, \u017ee v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina ciel nemus\u00ed zosta\u0165 v platnosti dlho, hospod\u00e1rske rizik\u00e1 s nimi spojen\u00e9 nie je mo\u017en\u00e9 ignorova\u0165. Pred\u013a\u017eenie obchodn\u00fdch obmedzen\u00ed by mohlo vies\u0165 k spomaleniu rastu HDP a zv\u00fd\u0161eniu infl\u00e1cie, \u010do by ovplyvnilo nielen dom\u00e1cu ekonomiku, ale aj k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch obchodn\u00fdch partnerov. Ak rokovania zlyhaj\u00fa a nap\u00e4tie sa vystup\u0148uje, existuje mo\u017enos\u0165 dlhotrvaj\u00faceho obchodn\u00e9ho konfliktu, ktor\u00fd by mohol ma\u0165 rozsiahle hospod\u00e1rske d\u00f4sledky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Slabn\u00face ekonomick\u00e9 ukazovatele<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

R\u00f4zne ekonomick\u00e9 \u00fadaje vykazuj\u00fa zn\u00e1mky zhor\u0161enia, vr\u00e1tane ukazovate\u013eov infl\u00e1cie, spotrebite\u013eskej d\u00f4very, maloobchodn\u00fdch tr\u017eieb, aktivity v sektore slu\u017eieb a zamestnanosti. Hoci k niektor\u00fdm z t\u00fdchto zmien s\u00edce mohlo d\u00f4js\u0165 bez oh\u013eadu na politick\u00e9 rozhodnutia, neistota v oblasti obchodnej politiky mohla prispie\u0165 k zhor\u0161eniu sentimentu a zv\u00fd\u0161eniu infla\u010dn\u00fdch o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00ed. Napriek slab\u0161\u00edm \u00fadajom sa odhady ekon\u00f3mov t\u00fdkaj\u00face sa rastu HDP v prvom \u0161tvr\u0165roku zn\u00ed\u017eili len mierne \u2014 z 2,25 % v janu\u00e1ri na s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdch 2,17 % \u2014 hoci \u00fapravy t\u00fdchto progn\u00f3z maj\u00fa tendenciu zaost\u00e1va\u0165 za podmienkami v re\u00e1lnom \u010dase.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modely sleduj\u00face aktu\u00e1lne trendy v\u0161ak nazna\u010duj\u00fa v\u00fdraznej\u0161\u00ed pokles, pri\u010dom niektor\u00e9 modely sa v kr\u00e1tkom \u010dase zmenili z kladn\u00fdch na z\u00e1porn\u00e9 projekcie rastu. Hoci sa e\u0161te len uvid\u00ed, ak\u00fd bude pln\u00fd vplyv, historick\u00e9 trendy nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee prudk\u00e9 pohyby ukazovate\u013eov v re\u00e1lnom \u010dase \u010dasto nazna\u010duj\u00fa \u0161ir\u0161ie zmeny, ktor\u00e9 konsenzu\u00e1lne progn\u00f3zy e\u0161te nemusia plne odzrkad\u013eova\u0165.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Obavy o celoro\u010dn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd rast<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Slab\u0161\u00ed za\u010diatok roka vyvol\u00e1va ot\u00e1zky, \u010di sa celoro\u010dn\u00fd rast HDP podar\u00ed udr\u017ea\u0165 na s\u00fa\u010dasnej konsenzu\u00e1lnej \u00farovni 2,28 %, a to najm\u00e4 ak obchodn\u00e9 re\u0161trikcie na\u010falej zostan\u00fa v platnosti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hoci recesia sa zatia\u013e nejav\u00ed by\u0165 na obzore, tempo rastu HDP je pre stabilitu trhu z\u00e1sadn\u00e9. Akciov\u00e9 trhy sa historicky najlep\u0161ie vyv\u00edjaj\u00fa pri miernom tempe rastu HDP, ktor\u00e9 podporuje podnikov\u00e9 pr\u00edjmy, zisky a invest\u00edcie. Ak sa v\u0161ak rast pr\u00edli\u0161 spomal\u00ed \u2014 najm\u00e4 spolu s pretrv\u00e1vaj\u00facou infl\u00e1ciou \u2014 trhov\u00e9 podmienky by sa mohli zhor\u0161i\u0165.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Tlak na rast ziskov spolo\u010dnost\u00ed<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Tieto ekonomick\u00e9 neistoty ohrozuj\u00fa konsenzu\u00e1lnu progn\u00f3zu zisku na tento rok vo v\u00fd\u0161ke 271 USD na akciu. Tento odhad sa od polovice janu\u00e1ra u\u017e mierne zn\u00ed\u017eil, a ak sa progn\u00f3zy hospod\u00e1rskeho rastu bud\u00fa na\u010falej zhor\u0161ova\u0165, m\u00f4\u017eu nasledova\u0165 \u010fal\u0161ie rev\u00edzie smerom nadol. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mnoh\u00e9 z najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edch spolo\u010dnost\u00ed s\u00favisiacich s umelou inteligenciou mali navy\u0161e probl\u00e9my s naplnen\u00edm vysok\u00fdch o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00ed, \u010do viedlo k v\u00fdpredajom ich akci\u00ed. V bud\u00facnosti bud\u00fa tieto spolo\u010dnosti pravdepodobne \u010deli\u0165 rast\u00facemu tlaku, aby preuk\u00e1zali konkr\u00e9tnu n\u00e1vratnos\u0165 svojich invest\u00edci\u00ed do umelej inteligencie, ke\u010f\u017ee s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 ocenenia zost\u00e1vaj\u00fa zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Ako navigova\u0165 v rozb\u00faren\u00fdch vod\u00e1ch<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Index S&P 500: Pomer ceny k ziskom (P\/E ratio)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Zdroj: Bloomberg Professional Terminal<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Donald Trump sa ujal prezidentsk\u00e9ho \u00faradu USA 20. janu\u00e1ra tohto roku, av\u0161ak po\u010das posledn\u00fdch t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148ov musel trh absorbova\u0165 intenz\u00edvny pr\u00edlev nov\u00fdch politick\u00fdch opatren\u00ed. Neust\u00e1ly tok nov\u00fdch ozn\u00e1men\u00ed zneis\u0165uje investorov, preto\u017ee je \u0165a\u017ek\u00e9 odl\u00ed\u0161i\u0165 dlhodob\u00e9 iniciat\u00edvy od taktick\u00fdch vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edch man\u00e9vrov. Spolo\u010dnos\u0165 Wealth Effect Management sa v\u0161ak dr\u017e\u00ed konzistentnej strat\u00e9gie \u2014 snahu o \u010dasovanie trhu vn\u00edmame vo vz\u0165ahu k uchovaniu bohatstva ako potenci\u00e1lne \u0161kodlivej\u0161\u00ed pr\u00edstup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dne\u0161n\u00fd trh stoj\u00ed na kri\u017eovatke, ktor\u00fa formuj\u00fa ekonomick\u00e9 \u00fadaje, politick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj a meniaci sa sentiment investorov. Hoci niektor\u00e9 akcie vykazuj\u00fa v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 oslabenie, \u0161ir\u0161ie trhov\u00e9 ukazovatele e\u0161te nedosiahli kritick\u00fa \u00farove\u0148 zhor\u0161enia a ocenenia zost\u00e1vaj\u00fa st\u00e1le vysok\u00e9. V tomto kontexte je cenov\u00e1 discipl\u00edna k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e1 a s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fa korekciu vn\u00edmame ako zdrav\u00fa a triezvu udalos\u0165. V uplynulom roku mali investori v r\u00e1mci investi\u010dnej rovnice pr\u00edli\u0161n\u00fd sklon zd\u00f4raz\u0148ova\u0165 pozit\u00edvne pr\u00edbehy a z\u00e1rove\u0148 bagatelizova\u0165 aspekt ocenenia. Teraz musia akt\u00edva dok\u00e1za\u0165, \u017ee s\u00fa hodn\u00e9 svojho ocenenia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hoci aktu\u00e1lne nemus\u00ed by\u0165 ide\u00e1lny moment na zv\u00fd\u0161enie alok\u00e1cie akci\u00ed nad r\u00e1mec dlhodob\u00fdch cie\u013eov, nie je to nevyhnutne ani v\u00fdzva na ich \u00fapln\u00e9 opustenie. Sentiment na trhu sa v\u00fdrazne zhor\u0161il, \u010do z\u00e1rove\u0148 vytv\u00e1ra selekt\u00edvne investi\u010dn\u00e9 pr\u00edle\u017eitosti. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Namiesto plo\u0161n\u00fdch invest\u00edci\u00ed uprednost\u0148ujeme pr\u00edstup zameran\u00fd na individu\u00e1lne akcie \u2014 teda v\u00fdber spolo\u010dnost\u00ed, ktor\u00e9 boli bu\u010f nespravodlivo stiahnut\u00e9 nadol napriek pevn\u00fdm fundamentom, alebo zostali relat\u00edvne stabiln\u00e9 v\u010faka odolnosti svojho podnikania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vzh\u013eadom na kombin\u00e1ciu ekonomick\u00fdch a politick\u00fdch neist\u00f4t a mo\u017en\u00e9 rizik\u00e1 poklesu ziskov spolo\u010dnost\u00ed by sa investori mali pripravi\u0165 na pokra\u010duj\u00facu volatilitu. Najbli\u017e\u0161ie mesiace bud\u00fa rozhoduj\u00face pre ur\u010denie, \u010di s\u00fa ned\u00e1vne obavy trhu do\u010dasn\u00e9 alebo sved\u010dia o dlhodobej\u0161ej zmene ekonomick\u00fdch podmienok. Udr\u017eiavanie dobre vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9ho portf\u00f3lia, uplat\u0148ovanie postupov riadenia riz\u00edk a uprednost\u0148ovanie vysokokvalitn\u00fdch invest\u00edci\u00ed \u2014 napr\u00edklad spolo\u010dnost\u00ed so siln\u00fdmi fundamentami a odoln\u00fdm rastom \u2014 m\u00f4\u017eu by\u0165 k\u013e\u00fa\u010dom k dlhodobej strat\u00e9gii v roku 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

UPOZORNENIE: P\u00f4vodne pripraven\u00e9 v anglickom jazyku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amirali Khaleghi, CFA (Portfolio Manager & Investment Strategist)
Alexander Chizganov (Portfolio Manager)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

K 11. marcu 2025 Volatilita trhov a ekonomick\u00e1 neistota: K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 faktory V\u00fdkonnos\u0165 indexu S&P 500 za posledn\u00fd rok Zdroj: Bloomberg Professional Terminal Volatilita akciov\u00fdch trhov sa v poslednom \u010dase prudko zv\u00fd\u0161ila, \u010do viedlo k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu poklesu hlavn\u00fdch indexov. Od za\u010diatku roka klesol index S&P 500 k dne\u0161n\u00e9mu d\u0148u o 4,3 %. Tento pokles m\u00f4\u017ee sp\u00f4sobova\u0165  nieko\u013eko k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":3485,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[177],"insight_author":[174],"class_list":["post-1428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-wem-market-pulse"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u010co sa deje na trhoch a \u010do s t\u00fdm \u2014 WEM Market Pulse, marec 2025 - Wealth Effect Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wem.sk\/sk\/insights\/co-sa-deje-na-trhoch-a-co-s-tym-wem-market-pulse-marec-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sk_SK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u010co sa deje na trhoch a \u010do s t\u00fdm \u2014 WEM Market Pulse, marec 2025 - Wealth Effect Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"K 11. marcu 2025 Volatilita trhov a ekonomick\u00e1 neistota: K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 faktory V\u00fdkonnos\u0165 indexu S&P 500 za posledn\u00fd rok Zdroj: Bloomberg Professional Terminal Volatilita akciov\u00fdch trhov sa v poslednom \u010dase prudko zv\u00fd\u0161ila, \u010do viedlo k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu poklesu hlavn\u00fdch indexov. Od za\u010diatku roka klesol index S&P 500 k dne\u0161n\u00e9mu d\u0148u o 4,3 %. 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