{"id":1449,"date":"2025-11-05T15:53:40","date_gmt":"2025-11-05T14:53:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wem.sk\/wem-market-notes-signal-vs-sum\/"},"modified":"2026-06-09T14:26:36","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T14:26:36","slug":"wem-market-notes-signal-vs-sum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wem.sk\/sk\/insights\/wem-market-notes-signal-vs-sum\/","title":{"rendered":"WEM Market Notes: Sign\u00e1l namiesto \u0161umu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

5. novembra 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trhov\u00fd \u0161um je dlhodobo prek\u00e1\u017ekou pre investorov, ako poznamenal Fischer Black, ke\u010f odl\u00ed\u0161il \u0161um od skuto\u010dn\u00fdch inform\u00e1ci\u00ed. V\u00fdzvou je oddeli\u0165 rozpt\u00fdlenie od sign\u00e1lu \u2014 \u010do je zru\u010dnos\u0165 obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e1 v dne\u0161nom prostred\u00ed plnom titulkov o dlhotrvaj\u00facom vl\u00e1dnom \u201eshutdown-e\u201c, meniacich sa menov\u00fdch politik\u00e1ch a nerovnomernom glob\u00e1lnom raste. Tento report odde\u013euje \u0161um od podstatn\u00fdch inform\u00e1ci\u00ed a sk\u00fama, ako tieto faktory ovplyv\u0148uj\u00fa trhy \u2014 so zameran\u00edm na akcie, dlhopisy a dev\u00edzov\u00e9 trhy, a tie\u017e \u00falohu diverzifik\u00e1cie pri zvl\u00e1dan\u00ed volatility v neskorej f\u00e1ze hospod\u00e1rskeho cyklu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Akcie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Historick\u00e9 \u00fadaje ukazuj\u00fa, \u017ee americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dne \u201eshutdowny\u201c len zriedkavo sp\u00f4sobili trval\u00e9 po\u0161kodenie v\u00fdkonnosti akci\u00ed. Od roku 1976 sme po\u010das pribli\u017ene polovice pr\u00edpadov dokonca zaznamenali rast akci\u00ed aj po\u010das  samotn\u00e9ho shutdownu \u2014 a vo v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ine pr\u00edpadov bol index S&P 500 vy\u0161\u0161ie 3, 6 aj 12 mesiacov po skon\u010den\u00ed. Posledn\u00fd porovnate\u013en\u00fd shutdown v roku 2018 trval 34 dn\u00ed a v nasleduj\u00facich mesiacoch po \u0148om nasledovali pozit\u00edvne v\u00fdnosy akci\u00ed, \u010do potvrdzuje, \u017ee tieto udalosti zvy\u010dajne nenar\u00fa\u0161aj\u00fa dlhodobej\u0161ie trhov\u00e9 trendy (vi\u010f. pr\u00edloha<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fd feder\u00e1lny shutdown (trvaj\u00faci u\u017e viac ako mesiac) je komplexnej\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u010diasto\u010dn\u00fd shutdown z roku 2018 a v\u0161etky nevyhnutn\u00e9 v\u00fddavky s\u00fa pozastaven\u00e9. Zaznamen\u00e1vame s\u00edce zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 riziko dlh\u0161ieho trvania, trhy v\u0161ak zatia\u013e zost\u00e1vaj\u00fa relat\u00edvne pokojn\u00e9. Robustn\u00fd trh pr\u00e1ce a zdrav\u00e9 z\u00e1klady s\u00fakromn\u00e9ho sektora pom\u00e1haj\u00fa tlmi\u0165 ekonomick\u00e9 dopady. Jav\u00ed sa, \u017ee investori o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fa, \u017ee v\u00fdpadky sp\u00f4soben\u00e9 neplaten\u00fdm vo\u013enom zamestnancov \u010di oneskoren\u00e9 feder\u00e1lne v\u00fddavky bud\u00fa do\u010dasn\u00e9 a ekonomika ich absorbuje v\u010faka svojej z\u00e1kladnej sile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investorom do akci\u00ed sa preto odpor\u00fa\u010da, aby sa nenechali rozpty\u013eova\u0165 politick\u00fdm \u0161umom a zamerali sa na hlavn\u00e9 faktory, ktor\u00e9 m\u00f4\u017eu podporova\u0165 trhy po\u010das nasleduj\u00facich 12 \u2013 15 mesiacov. Na\u010falej p\u00f4sob\u00ed viacero priazniv\u00fdch vplyvov, vr\u00e1tane rozsiahlej deregul\u00e1cie, o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00fdch da\u0148ov\u00fdch \u00fa\u013eav pre firmy a dom\u00e1cnosti a pokra\u010duj\u00faceho trendu zni\u017eovania sadzieb zo strany Feder\u00e1lneho rezervn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, pri\u010dom posledn\u00e9 zn\u00ed\u017eenie pri\u0161lo v okt\u00f3bri. K\u013e\u00fa\u010dovou podporou zost\u00e1vaj\u00fa aj na\u010falej vysok\u00e9 invest\u00edcie do technol\u00f3gi\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ke\u010f\u017ee zisky indexu S&P 500 s\u00fa st\u00e1le silne koncentrovan\u00e9 v nieko\u013ek\u00fdch technologick\u00fdch spolo\u010dnostiach s ve\u013ekou trhovou kapitaliz\u00e1ciou, riziko valu\u00e1cie a koncentr\u00e1cie v S&P 500 je \u010doraz \u0165a\u017e\u0161ie ignorova\u0165. Sme n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee investori by mali za\u010da\u0165 prehodnocova\u0165 svoje poz\u00edcie spolu s t\u00fdm, ako sa \u0161\u00edrka trhu za\u010d\u00edna zv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ova\u0165. Hist\u00f3ria ukazuje, \u017ee v priebehu viacer\u00fdch cyklov sa obdobia \u0161ir\u0161ieho ved\u00faceho postavenia indexu S&P 500 zhodovali s relat\u00edvne silnej\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdkonom stredn\u00fdch kapitaliz\u00e1ci\u00ed, ktor\u00e9 pon\u00fakaj\u00fa zdrav\u00fa rovnov\u00e1hu medzi rastom, kvalitou a diverzifik\u00e1ciou. Na rozdiel od segmentu spolo\u010dnost\u00ed s ve\u013ekou kapitaliz\u00e1ciou, stredne ve\u013ek\u00e9 spolo\u010dnosti nie s\u00fa z\u00e1visl\u00e9 od nieko\u013ek\u00fdch firiem a lep\u0161ie zodpovedaj\u00fa ekonomickej dynamike USA. Ako sa ved\u00faca poz\u00edcia nevyhnutne roz\u0161iruje za hranicu dne\u0161nej \u00fazkej skupiny v\u00ed\u0165azov, stredne ve\u013ek\u00e9 spolo\u010dnosti sa zdaj\u00fa by\u0165 v dobrej poz\u00edcii, aby z\u00edskali v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed podiel na bud\u00facom raste. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

US Mid-Cap vs. Large-Cap Performance Over Multiple Market Cycles<\/sub><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Koncentr\u00e1cia sa vypo\u010d\u00edtava ako v\u00e1ha 10 najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edch podielov v indexe S&P 500 v priebehu \u010dasu.
Zdroj: Wealth Effect Management, Bloomberg Professional Terminal. \u00dadaje od 1. 1. 2000 do 30. 9. 2025<\/sup>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dlhopisy a dev\u00edzov\u00e9 trhy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

V kr\u00e1tkodobom horizonte si udr\u017eiavame medved\u00ed v\u00fdh\u013ead na americk\u00fd dol\u00e1r, ktor\u00fd zost\u00e1va siln\u00fd aj napriek roku oslabovania. \u0160iroko roz\u0161\u00edren\u00fd pesimizmus vo\u010di dol\u00e1ru je zrejm\u00fd z poz\u00edci\u00ed na term\u00ednovan\u00fdch trhoch \u2014 \u0161pekulat\u00edvni obchodn\u00edci hromadia ve\u013ek\u00e9 kr\u00e1tke poz\u00edcie na dol\u00e1r a zodpovedaj\u00face dlh\u00e9 poz\u00edcie v hlavn\u00fdch men\u00e1ch, ako s\u00fa euro a jen. T\u00e1to negat\u00edvna poz\u00edcia pretrv\u00e1va aj v roku 2025 a v kr\u00e1tkodobom horizonte m\u00f4\u017ee \u010falej brzdi\u0165 v\u00fdkonnos\u0165 dol\u00e1ra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dol\u00e1r oslabuje z viacer\u00fdch d\u00f4vodov. Na jeho hodnotu tla\u010d\u00ed obrat Feder\u00e1lneho rezervn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu smerom k zni\u017eovaniu sadzieb v roku 2025 a obavy zo spomalenia americkej ekonomiky. Po okt\u00f3brovom zn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sadzieb sa rozdiel v \u00faro\u010den\u00ed medzi USA a ostatn\u00fdmi hlavn\u00fdmi ekonomikami z\u00fa\u017eil, \u010d\u00edm sa oslabil jeden z tradi\u010dn\u00fdch pilierov podpory dol\u00e1ra. Vyhliadky na \u010fal\u0161ie uvo\u013e\u0148ovanie menovej politiky v kombin\u00e1cii so zmier\u0148uj\u00facim sa dom\u00e1cim rastom na za\u010diatku roku 2026 na\u010falej podporuj\u00fa medvediu n\u00e1ladu. Na trhu dlhopisov pokles v\u00fdnosov v prostred\u00ed vo\u013enej\u0161ej politiky podporuje ceny. Z taktick\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska uprednost\u0148ujeme americk\u00e9 dlhopisy so strednou splatnos\u0165ou, ktor\u00e9 moment\u00e1lne pon\u00fakaj\u00fa atrakt\u00edvnej\u0161\u00ed pomer medzi v\u00fdnosom a rizikom dur\u00e1cie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Napriek preva\u017euj\u00facemu pesimizmu m\u00f4\u017ee preplnen\u00fd \u201eshort-dollar\u201c obchod vytvori\u0165 priestor na obrat. Nie je potrebn\u00e9 ve\u013ea, aby sa n\u00e1lada zmenila. Mo\u017en\u00fdmi sp\u00fa\u0161\u0165a\u010dmi by mohlo by\u0165 skor\u0161ie zastavenie zni\u017eovania sadzieb zo strany Fed-u, lep\u0161ie ne\u017e o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 \u00fadaje z USA alebo n\u00e1rast politickej \u010di geopolitickej neistoty v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, ktor\u00fd by zv\u00fd\u0161il atraktivitu americk\u00fdch akt\u00edv. Ktor\u00fdko\u013evek z t\u00fdchto faktorov by mohol vies\u0165 k uzatv\u00e1raniu kr\u00e1tkych poz\u00edci\u00ed a kr\u00e1tkodobo podpori\u0165 dol\u00e1r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V strednodobom horizonte o\u010dak\u00e1vame, \u017ee dol\u00e1r sa do konca roku 2026 stabilizuje vo\u010di ostatn\u00fdm hlavn\u00fdm men\u00e1m, no na\u0161\u00edm z\u00e1kladn\u00fdm scen\u00e1rom je, \u017ee dol\u00e1r ofici\u00e1lne vst\u00fapil do medvedieho cyklu. Tak\u00e9to cykly sa v minulosti opakovali a \u010dasto boli sprev\u00e1dzan\u00e9 lep\u0161ou v\u00fdkonnos\u0165ou neamerick\u00fdch akci\u00ed. Investori uva\u017euj\u00faci o glob\u00e1lnej diverzifik\u00e1cii by mali ma\u0165 t\u00fato historick\u00fa s\u00favislos\u0165 na pam\u00e4ti. Dlhodob\u00e9 oslabenie dol\u00e1ra by mohlo s\u00favisie\u0165 s roz\u0161\u00edren\u00edm ved\u00facej poz\u00edcie na trhu mimo americk\u00fdch technol\u00f3gi\u00ed, \u010do by podporilo relat\u00edvny vietor v placht\u00e1ch medzin\u00e1rodn\u00fdch trhov.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US dollar trade-weighted index<\/strong><\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Posledn\u00fd vrchol zaznamenan\u00fd 30. 9. 2022.
Zdroj: Wealth Effect Management, Bloomberg Professional Terminal. \u00dadaje k 3. 11. 2025.<\/sup><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Preh\u013ead alok\u00e1cie akt\u00edv<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Diverzifik\u00e1cia bola v\u017edy z\u00e1kladn\u00fdm princ\u00edpom pri vytv\u00e1ran\u00ed portf\u00f3lia \u2014 a vzh\u013eadom na to, ako ve\u013emi sa v poslednom obdob\u00ed zmenilo ekonomick\u00e9 prostredie, nadobudla e\u0161te v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznam. \u00darokov\u00e9 sadzby, politika centr\u00e1lnych b\u00e1nk a glob\u00e1lne trendy rastu sa zmenili sp\u00f4sobom, ktor\u00fd v\u00fdznamne ovplyv\u0148uje poz\u00edciu akci\u00ed, pevn\u00fdch v\u00fdnosov a alternat\u00edvnych invest\u00edci\u00ed. V reakcii na to sme aktualizovali na\u0161e taktick\u00e9 usmernenia, aby lep\u0161ie odr\u00e1\u017eali s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fa situ\u00e1ciu a pr\u00edle\u017eitosti, ktor\u00e9 v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti pova\u017eujeme za najatrakt\u00edvnej\u0161ie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V tabu\u013eke ni\u017e\u0161ie s\u00fa uveden\u00e9 na\u0161e najnov\u0161ie n\u00e1zory pod\u013ea tried a podkateg\u00f3ri\u00ed akt\u00edv, ako s\u00fa vyjadren\u00e9 v na\u0161ich modelov\u00fdch portf\u00f3li\u00e1ch WEM. Tieto zmeny v poz\u00edcii s\u00fa navrhnut\u00e9 tak, aby vyva\u017eovali riziko, zni\u017eovali z\u00e1vislos\u0165 od jedin\u00e9ho trhu a zachytili oblasti, kde vid\u00edme silnej\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1l v\u00fdnosov v nasleduj\u00facich mesiacoch. S\u00fa vhodn\u00e9 aj pre investorov denominovan\u00fdch v eur\u00e1ch, ktor\u00ed chc\u00fa riadi\u0165 svoju expoz\u00edciu vo\u010di americk\u00e9mu dol\u00e1ru z\u00e1mernej\u0161ie, namiesto toho, aby nechali menov\u00e9 riziko nezabezpe\u010den\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Preh\u013ead alok\u00e1cie akt\u00edv \u2014 sum\u00e1r<\/strong><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Pre viac inform\u00e1ci\u00ed pros\u00edm kontaktujte svojho wealth managera.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pr\u00edloha<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n
\"\"
Amirali Khaleghi, CFA<\/strong>
Portfolio Manager
& Investment Strategist<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"\"
Alexander Chizganov<\/strong>
Portfolio Manager<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Upozornenie: P\u00f4vodne pripraven\u00e9 v anglickom jazyku.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

5. novembra 2025 Trhov\u00fd \u0161um je dlhodobo prek\u00e1\u017ekou pre investorov, ako poznamenal Fischer Black, ke\u010f odl\u00ed\u0161il \u0161um od skuto\u010dn\u00fdch inform\u00e1ci\u00ed. V\u00fdzvou je oddeli\u0165 rozpt\u00fdlenie od sign\u00e1lu \u2014 \u010do je zru\u010dnos\u0165 obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e1 v dne\u0161nom prostred\u00ed plnom titulkov o dlhotrvaj\u00facom vl\u00e1dnom \u201eshutdown-e\u201c, meniacich sa menov\u00fdch politik\u00e1ch a nerovnomernom glob\u00e1lnom raste. Tento report odde\u013euje \u0161um od podstatn\u00fdch … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1972,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[178],"insight_author":[174],"class_list":["post-1449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-wem-market-notes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWEM Market Notes: Sign\u00e1l namiesto \u0161umu - Wealth Effect Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wem.sk\/sk\/insights\/wem-market-notes-signal-vs-sum\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sk_SK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"WEM Market Notes: Sign\u00e1l namiesto \u0161umu - Wealth Effect Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"5. novembra 2025 Trhov\u00fd \u0161um je dlhodobo prek\u00e1\u017ekou pre investorov, ako poznamenal Fischer Black, ke\u010f odl\u00ed\u0161il \u0161um od skuto\u010dn\u00fdch inform\u00e1ci\u00ed. V\u00fdzvou je oddeli\u0165 rozpt\u00fdlenie od sign\u00e1lu \u2014 \u010do je zru\u010dnos\u0165 obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e1 v dne\u0161nom prostred\u00ed plnom titulkov o dlhotrvaj\u00facom vl\u00e1dnom \u201eshutdown-e\u201c, meniacich sa menov\u00fdch politik\u00e1ch a nerovnomernom glob\u00e1lnom raste. 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